Not that concerned anymore...

[Colin]

Isabel is already weakening, and I'm only expecting 1-2" with maybe 40-50 mph winds...just a regular Nor' Easter to me!

[weatherluvr]

UGH! This is the kind of complacency that's scary! I mean, I hope you're right, but...

[tomboudreau]

Colin and everyone... please read the post from Air Force Met titled Isabelle's Weakening Trend, what does it mean. It makes perfectly good sense on what is going on. We cannot just right this storm off as if its going to be nothing. There is still plenty of time for this thing to come back. I wouldn't write this storm off until it ashore and zooming off to the north northwest sometime Friday.

[JCT777]

Agreed that Isabel could make a comeback in the next day or two. It's still possible that max wins will be near or above Cat 3 strength at landfall (assuming a NC or VA landfall). If the speed increases as predicted, hurricane force winds (or at least gusts) are possible in eastern PA on Friday. That chance would increase to a LIKELIHOOD if Isabel goes further north and makes landfall between Ocean City, MD and Atlantic City, NJ. So it is best to not let your guard down yet.

[Lindaloo]

Colin... I hope you are not feeling that way. Read JetMaxx's thread please.

[Scott_inVA]

Isabel is already weakening, and I'm only expecting 1-2" with maybe 40-50 mph winds...just a regular Nor' Easter to me!

Colin, you seem to have learned nothing after watching winter storms crush people who were supposed to get 2" and others who had frozen green grass after a 8" forecast.

Also, does the word Allison mean anything? :o

Scott

[wxman57]

Better check again, Isabel is strengthening. Recon is reporting a slowly falling pressure. But, more importantly, take a look at how the eye is reforming into a "pinpoint" eye. Isabel is becoming a classic-shaped hurricane with feeder bands and a tiny eye. Outflow is improving in the western quadrant. All signs of intensification. Not to mention that water temps increase in Isabel's path. I wouldn't be surprised if Isabel is a Cat 4 again tomorrow.

[Rainband]

Better check again, Isabel is strengthening. Recon is reporting a slowly falling pressure. But, more importantly, take a look at how the eye is reforming into a "pinpoint" eye. Isabel is becoming a classic-shaped hurricane with feeder bands and a tiny eye. Outflow is improving in the western quadrant. All signs of intensification. Not to mention that water temps increase in Isabel's path. I wouldn't be surprised if Isabel is a Cat 4 again tomorrow.

Thanks wxman57..This is still a dangerous situation and my sister in PA said they are compairing this to "hazel" in some way. My brother In Law got a letter from the governor..he works for PENN-DOT as an engineer..I should say his office did..It was telling them to prepare :o Everyone watch and stay safe!!

[Colin]

Wel, it's not going to be like ALLISON, because the storm is going to be moving real fast, dumping maybe 3" in the path...someone please tell me how we can get more than that when the storm will be moving 30+ mph...I know the winds are a possibility, and I appreciate all your analysis's, but I just want to know how I can get more then 1-3" of rain

[opera ghost]

Wel, it's not going to be like ALLISON, because the storm is going to be moving real fast, dumping maybe 3" in the path...someone please tell me how we can get more than that when the storm will be moving 30+ mph...I know the winds are a possibility, and I appreciate all your analysis's, but I just want to know how I can get more then 1-3" of rain

Well, quite frankly it's NOT going to be like Allison- Allison was a tropical storm (60mph winds as opposed to 120+ mph winds), and she was booking too- although not quite as fast as 30mph (Where did that number come from?!?!?!)

But consider this. Stick your hand in a bathtub full of water. Now get a good circular motion going. Got the picture in your head? Keep it moving for a good while- get up the speed you can manage- then move the swirl towards the edge of the bathtub. If you're not getting serious waves yet- you're going WAY too slow. Now force it into the side of the bathtub. This isn't even one one hundredth of the force at which the OCEAN and mother nature herself could be coming to a home near you... in the form of tidal surge and rain if you are in the path of the storm.

Now if you're not in the path- sure. Maybe by the time she gets to you she'll be a wussy thunderstorm storm that you can ignore.

But these things are torrential downpour for hours on end.... if you think people are freaked out over 3 inches of rain and a couple of high wind gusts- you're out of your mind and should probably live far far from the ocean. There's more to a hurricane than water- but water is a massive massive portion. Are you even comprehending the size and magnitude of a storm that is the size of Florida and moving like an F2 tonado?

Please be concerned- especially if your area is threatened.

[GalvestonDuck]

Allison wasn't booking. Allison hung around here like a bad habit ya can't get rid off.

I believe Scott's main emphasis in mentioning Beeotch Allison (hey, name-calling is allowed when it's directed at storms that you lived through, right? ) was about her flooding rains

[Anonymous]

Colin as for the rain:
anyone in south texas or even central texas probably can tell you we way on this coast even have gotten torrential rains from a hurricane or tropical storm over by california and mexico because once it hits land all the energy and moisture has to go someplace it is not just gonna disappear and believe me those thunderstorms and bands can travel a distance producing nothing but flooding in the path of them.

[Lindaloo]

Colin... just heed all watches and warnings okay? Be cautious until she is gone. I am sure your parent's will keep you safe.

[jj]

Speaking of drenching rain from tropical systems - Tropical Storm Claudette from 1979 comes to mind. 43" in 24 hours just south of Houston in the metropolis of Alvin, TX.

[Colin]

I doubt we'll get something like that...I'm thinking 1-2"/30-40 mph winds for Eastern PA, NJ, MD, etc...