MON 12Z GFS Ens: Isabel 180 mi further S vs. 0Z run

[LarryWx]

I did a comparison of the just released Mon. 9/15 12Z GFS ens. surface map mean and noticed that the 60 hour map (for 0Z on THU 9/18) has Isabel about 3 degrees (~180 miles) further south than the comparable map from the ensemble run from just 12 hours earlier (i.e the 72 hour map of the 0Z run). The 0Z run 60 hour map has Isabel ~450 miles east of Charleston, SC, whereas the 12Z run 72 hour map has it ~550 miles east of St. Augustine, FL.

Here are the links:

12Z 9/15 GFS Ens 60 hour surface map:

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 2_vt60.gif


0Z 9/15 GFS Ens 72 hour surface map:

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 0_vt72.gif

Any comments as to the significance of this or the lack thereof as far as the predicted landfall area? Does this influence people's opinions that the landfall point may be a bit further south than thought earlier today or yesterday? Is the coast of NC near Wilmington in more danger now of being hit directly?

[njbeachwx]

Need a trend, if the 18z keeps going maybe

[Guest]

NOT a surprise larry.... Ridge ridge ridge

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/isabel/ ... lProb1.jpg

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/isabel/winds1.jpg