2:00 NHC DISCUSSION

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON 15 SEP 2003

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE ISABEL IS CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 69.4W AT 15/1500 UTC
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120
KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN
WITH A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. EYEWALL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRAGMENTED...AND THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS NOW MORE BANDED THAN IT WAS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ISABEL IS SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OFF THE CAROLINAS IS MOVING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE STEERING CURRENTS SURROUNDING ISABEL ARE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS SOME RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN
NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF...THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 67W-71W. IN
ADDITION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
22N-28N BETWEEN 66W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-16N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 57W
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 8N1W
7N20W 6N50W 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 8W-15W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
17W-27W.

MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO NEAR
23N103W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 10N W OF 90W.

SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR WESTERN CUBA AT 20N84W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER.

ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER HURRICANE ISABEL. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 60W-73W.

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N43W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 12N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN
600 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
23N29W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N BETWEEN 20W-40W.

SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALIGNED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ALONG 31N85W 29N94W 27N98W 28N102W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT.

DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 32N34W 29N40W 26N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT.

A 1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 24N28W.

SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SEE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 94W-98W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 91W-94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SEE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 47W-50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 74W-77W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR HURRICANE ISABEL AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

$$
FORMOSA