Significantly to the right...Delaware/New Jersey

#1 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 4:48 pm

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/isabel.html

I've been steadily moving right today, but given the setup, I think this is the best solution. This track is farther away from Cape Hatteras and carries it near the Delmarva and near New Jersey. But as always said, everyone keep an eye out because of the potential small shifts in forecast track.

#2 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 5:13 pm

Audio is up now. This one basically just justifies the forecast.

TheWeatherZone · #3 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 5:15 pm

Hey, what makes you want to move your forecast more to the right?

Mike~

#4 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 5:29 pm

Well, to summarize everything in the forecast to a nutshell, the ridge to the north has been forced along a north-south tilt along it southwest side, and a disturbance moving up the coast is going to somewhat erode this part of the ridge. This leaves a trough along the coast for Isabel to simply ride up.

Additionally, Isabel shouldn't make any more jogs to the west, so keeping it on basically a straight line through 36 hours still keeps the hurricane to the right of the previous forecasts.

TheWeatherZone · #5 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 5:33 pm

Ok thanks. I was just wondering, it seems the trend has been west. But I'm not sure about that. The new GFS is S/W of its previous run. The Euro tonight should hold the key. I'm thinking a lower delmarva hit. But lots of other people are thinking NC. Should be interesting.

Mike~

Significantly to the right...Delaware/New Jersey

Significantly to the right...Delaware/New Jersey

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