Isabel looks like she's hitting a wall.

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:14 pm

Check out this satellite loop. Isabelle is going to have a tough time holding her own the next 24 hours or so.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:16 pm

Hmmm, where's the shear coming from?

Looks like the same anticyclone that once fed it (vented it).

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

SacrydDreamz · #3 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:17 pm

Just wait until the wall collapses and that convection to the east and north begins to wrap around.. we could see some modest intensification tomorrow IF the shear is reduced as anticipated..

JetMaxx · #4 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:19 pm

I've seen hurricanes do this before. In fact, I mentioned to my dad several nights ago that IF the GFS verified and Isabel indeed may a sharp turn to the NNW, it would probably severely disrupt and weaken the hurricane...and it has...

#5 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:21 pm

The NHC doesn't think so and I have to agree. The waters she will be moving in to are not as warm as those she is in at the moment. She may be able to remain a cat. 1 or 2 at best, IMO.

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:24 pm

Isabel is stuck in a theta-e pocket, if you will.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/r ... c_thet.gif

SacrydDreamz · #7 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:27 pm

Stormcenter wrote:The NHC doesn't think so and I have to agree. The waters she will be moving in to are not as warm as those she is in at the moment. She may be able to remain a cat. 1 or 2 at best, IMO.

The water is plenty warm.. ever seen a hurricane maintain intensity in 24°C waters? His name was Fabian..

wayoutfront · #8 Postby **wayoutfront** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:28 pm

http://wrel.com/hurr_sst.htm

looks according to the Navy that the water are same up until the coast

JetMaxx · #9 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:31 pm

The sst's are warm enough....Isabel was a cat-5 over 28° c water last week....

The big question is what type of upper enviroment will we see develop over Isabel when she begins accelerating toward the coast in 36-48 hours. Some models suggest 30 kts of shear...which will limit intensification or even weaken the hurricane...as Opal was weakened in 1995.

On the other hand, a couple other models indicate the southerly jet max will remain west of Isabel, allowing her to develop again underneath a light shear enviroment the last 12-24 hours before landfall...which is the scenario I'm basing more forecast on -- because I saw hurricane Hugo intensify the same way before landfall in 1989.

The only limiting sst's are if Isabel passes north of the Gulf Stream...and on my projected track the Gulf Stream only lies 15-20 miles offshore...which will limit Isabel to only 1-2 hours at most over sub-80° degree sst before landfall (I'm forecasting a forward speed at landfall of 20 mph, and that's being conservative).

TheWeatherZone · #10 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 11:44 pm

Place is a ghost town, jeez. Comon people, we have a landfalling cane in 3 days. She may look kinda beat up, but I think its temp. Places from NC to NJ will probably see strong winds, heavy rain. I miss WWBB, I miss the name calling, and all that wonderfull stuff. HM, get over here!!!

Mike~

Isabel looks like she's hitting a wall.

Isabel looks like she's hitting a wall.

NHC doesn't think so.

Re: NHC doesn't think so.

Waters

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