What I'm afraid of ...

[Stormsfury]

With Isabel tenaciously fighting off shear and seeing some signs of the NW'ern quad beginning to reacquire some wrapping convection. Upper-level Conditions look to become more favorable for another 24 hours as Isabel accelerates and shear becomes a more relative issue.

Intensity forecasts are always the most difficult to forecasts involving tropical cyclones, and Isabel may be no different. What I'm I afraid of...Isabel pulling a Hugo in regards to a quick intensification at the end...

Let me explain.

As Hugo approached the coast of South Carolina in 1989, It went through a period of disorganization such as Isabel is now in regards to wind shear and also some land interaction. As Hugo got within 300 miles of the coast, Hugo started to re-organize, fighting off the shear, and feeding off the very warm SST's of the Gulf Stream.

Isabel MAY have a window of opportunity to do the same. Upper conditions should become a little more favorable, and as Isabel begins to pick up forward speed later in the period just before landfall. Shear will become more relative with the forward speed of the hurricane. Isabel will be channelled in between the strong ridge to the north and the negatively tilted trough and be pulled NW. In fact, the setup is reminiscent of Hurricane Hugo, just a little further east this time.

SF

[HuffWx]

I agree SF...

Looking at sat pics it looks disorganized, but its is just about do disperse of the dry air it inhaled. Once that is cleared, there is a good chance the eye closes off and she kicks back up again.

Nice post.

Huff

[JCT777]

Good post, Stormsfury. There is a major difference between a Category 1 hurricane at landfall (if Isabel continues weakening) and a Category 3 hurricane at landfall (if Isabel strengthens as you have outlined).

[SacrydDreamz]

I agree SF...

Looking at sat pics it looks disorganized, but its is just about do disperse of the dry air it inhaled. Once that is cleared, there is a good chance the eye closes off and she kicks back up again.

Nice post.

Huff

Very good point!! I have always imagined hurricanes as huge exhaust engines.. releasing TONS of heat. Just wait until this sputter subsides.. she just needed a new set of fuel injectors, and she may be getting them!!!

[JetMaxx]

Well said Stormsfury....I see a very similar synoptic situation as occurred with Hugo...eerily similar.

[Stormsfury]

Shear is just about over ...

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.500t.html