Not like yesterday when many of us were talking about convection wrapping around.. this looks different. Notice how the outflow has expanded to the west in the face of the shear and the center has reorganized further west as well under an infant CDO. If this trend continues I'd expect some modest strengthening as long as shear doesn't increase. Dry air is out there but it doesn't appear to be having quite the negative effect it did yesterday, though it still will hinder any strengthening. My very unskilled forecast.. a minimal cat 3 at landfall near Ocracoke Inlet, NC
Initial: 90kts.
12hr: 90kts.
24hr: 95kts.
36hr: 100kts.
48hr: 105kts.
60hr: 100kts.
72hr: 55kts. INLAND
96hr: 35kts. EXTRATROPICAL
Some strengthening? Looks that way..
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SacrydDreamz
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Some strengthening? Looks that way..
Last edited by SacrydDreamz on Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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soonertwister
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If you are predicting 110 knots at landfall, that is a strong cat-3, not a weak one. 115 knots is a cat-4, but 5 knots up or down won't make that much of a difference.
Isabel could make landfall in an area that hasn't seen a major hurricane in a century, so the rightful concern is that the people there won't be fully prepared for the storm's impact. Very dangerous scenario, to be sure.
Isabel could make landfall in an area that hasn't seen a major hurricane in a century, so the rightful concern is that the people there won't be fully prepared for the storm's impact. Very dangerous scenario, to be sure.
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SacrydDreamz
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Anyhow, I also adjusted due to initial intensity
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vortex100
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As mentioned by the NHC in the 11 am Discussion, the main problem is that the core of this storm has been severe disrupted. The convective bands are a mess. I have seen this happen many times in the past and it is very difficult, although not impossible, for a hurricane to regain strength after this type of disruption. Outflow is looking better and better, but if Isabel had about 4-5 days over warm water instead of just 2 there would be a better chance of a significant comeback. Even so, I am still expecting some strengthening to a top level cat 2 storm or low level cat 3 storm just before landfall.
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Anonymous
Some red is back
Looks like it might be trying to intensify. Some red (deeper convection) has reappeared in the radar for the first time in a while. That's not good. Would rather it be weakening than intensifying as it nears its landfall approach.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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Guest
yeah..
It does look a little better organized this morning. I don't see it being any stronger than 115mph at landfall.
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Anonymous
Deeper Convection
Derek Ortt wrote:better organized? what are you seeing that I am not?
I do some red on the floater now -- which has not been present since yesterday. Maybe it is not a big deal or maybe it is trying to make a come back or at least hold its own.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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