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cycloneye
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Here is the discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:05 am

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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:08 am

They say that she may go up in winds but never to cat 3 as I said earlier today as shear and dry air has disrupted her organization.
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#3 Postby JCT777 » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:30 am

Restrengthening to Cat 3 for Isabel is still possible, but only if everything goes right. I would think she would likely be a Cat 2 at landfall.
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:35 am

Irregardless, preparations should be make for Isabel as a Cat 3 and as a strong CAT 3. Charleston, SC made those preparations assuming Hugo would be a CAT 3 and a strong CAT at that to play it safe. Remember, HUGO was at 105 mph on the morning of Sept. 21st, and by 6 pm, HUGO grew to 135 mph with a sudden burst of intensification just before landfall. (Best track and re-analysis put HUGO at 120 kts or 138 mph).

Intensity forecasts are the hardest things to gauge. I must admit, I gotta hand it to the SHIPS model which at the time seemed spurious about weakening Isabel as much as it did 5 days ago, but sure enough, Isabel is down to 105 mph.

SF
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#5 Postby SacrydDreamz » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:35 am

I'll still vote for a minimal cat 3.. but I am not very skilled in Tropical weather... :oops:
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