Models hint Gulf action?

~SirCane · #1 Postby **~SirCane** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:27 am

I've heard that the Gulf of Mexico should be watched next week because models are hinting at possible development.

Anyone know anything about this?

#2 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:33 am

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models/avn/avn_sfc_loop.html

here's one that shows a Low at the end of the loop.........

Steve H. · #3 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:36 am

THink there will trouble in the western Caribbean next week. Models are hinting of something developing near Jamaica/south 'o Cuba. NOGAPS/UK.

#4 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:00 pm

IMHO, for the remainder of September, anything that would develop in the NW Caribbean or the Gulf would likely be a potentiial headache for areas from Mississippi on eastward to the Keys. That mean trough position at 90w looks like it's here to stay for awhile, especially next week on into the end of the month. I believe that areas from New Orleans on westward into Texas are in for a great stretch of well deserved fall weather the next couple of weeks. Be interesting to see though, if the pattern turns around going into the first two weeks of October while the tail end of the wave train and the Carribean still have some energy left to throw northward.

Meantime, let's enjoy the football weather. Geaux Tigers! Bring it on 'Dawgs! UGA=TIGER BAIT :wink:

LaBreeze · #5 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:51 pm

we still remember Hurricane Lili all too well visiting us in early October last year.

#6 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 2:01 pm

I hope you are right about that Bayouventeux!!! We could really use some of that "Fall weather" here in Houston. It is beautiful today-a little warm at 90º, but humidity is on 49% so it feels nice. Progs for the weekend are for temps in the 80's down to 60. AAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

#7 Postby **bfez1** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 2:04 pm

We had Lili and Isidore within one week of each other last year here in the New Orleans area.

PTrackerLA · #8 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 2:25 pm

The TC threat for Louisiana is by no means over for this season. Lili came around oct. 3 I believe and probably until about October 15 we need to keep our guard up. It's starting to feel like fall with the humidity gone but the muggies will be back.

#9 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 2:28 pm

You're right PC Tracker. I have a feeling the GOM action will stretch into
mid October this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3 more systems form in the GOM within the next month. We shall see.

PTrackerLA · #10 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 2:39 pm

I predict Juan will be a GOM storm. Back in the 80's Juan hit Louisiana 3 times lol.

~SirCane · #11 Postby **~SirCane** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 3:56 pm

and back in 1995, I was smacked by Hurricane Opal in the first week of October. Just 2 months after getting smacked by Hurricane Erin.

The gulf will definately have to be watched in the next month!

zoeyann · #12 Postby **zoeyann** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 6:11 pm

yeah PT - Juan loves Louisiana maybe he will come back for a visit LOL

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 6:14 pm

zoeyann wrote:yeah PT - Juan loves Louisiana maybe he will come back for a visit LOL

Yea Cajun should be spelled canejun :lol:

Coriolis2003 · #14 Postby **Coriolis2003** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 6:20 pm

vbhoutex wrote:I hope you are right about that Bayouventeux!!! We could really use some of that "Fall weather" here in Houston. It is beautiful today-a little warm at 90º, but humidity is on 49% so it feels nice. Progs for the weekend are for temps in the 80's down to 60. AAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

Same is expected here in Tallahassee. I just love this weather and temps should be lowering over the next few days. Bring on the first real cold front and more FOOTBALL weather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TUscALooSA · #15 Postby **TUscALooSA** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 9:16 pm

And how can we forget last year's one-two punch with Izzy and Lili . . . I certainly won't!!

bahamaswx · #16 Postby **bahamaswx** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 9:34 pm

I love the homegrown systems.

Hurrikaniac · #17 Postby **Hurrikaniac** » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:39 pm

Hello, this is my first post here. Just thought I would try to contribute something interesting to the discussion. While it is true that hurricane strikes become less common in October in the western and central Gulf, the area is by no means safe. Never let your guard down.

Oct. 7, 1778, LA: intensity?
Oct. 2-4, 1837, TX: intensity? (curved right along the TX coast)
Oct. 6-7, 1837, LA: intensity? (same storm as above)
Oct. 17, 1848, TX: intensity?
Oct. 2, 1860, LA: Cat. 2, 110 mph
Oct. 2, 1867, TX: Cat. 2, 105 mph (sideswiped Brownsville)
Oct. 4, 1867, LA: Cat. 2, 105 mph (same storm as above)
Oct. 3, 1877, FL: Cat. 3, 115 mph
Oct. 12, 1886, LA: Cat. 3, 120 mph
Oct. 19, 1887, LA: Cat. 1, 85 mph
Oct. 2, 1893, LA: Cat 3/4, 130 mph
Oct. 2, 1893, MS: Cat 2, 100 mph
Oct. 17, 1912, TX: Cat 1, 75 mph
Oct. 18, 1916, AL/FL: Cat. 3, 115 mph
Oct. 16, 1923, LA: Cat 1, 85 mph
Oct. 4, 1949, TX: Cat. 3/4, 130 mph
Oct. 4, 1964 (Hilda), LA: Cat. 3, 125 mph
Oct. 29, 1985, LA (Juan): Cat. 1, 75 mph
Oct. 16, 1989, TX (Jerry): Cat. 1, 85 mph
Oct. 4, 1995, FL (Opal): Cat. 3, 125 mph
Oct. 3, 2002, LA (Lili): Cat. 1, 90 mph

Honorable Mention
Nov. 5, 1839, TX: intensity?
Nov. 21, 1985 (Kate) FL: Cat. 2, 100 mph

PTrackerLA · #18 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 1:31 am

Can someone clear this up, was Lili a cat 1 or 2 at landfall. I thought for sure she was a 100mph cat 2 but I've seen several people post here that she was a cat 1. What's the deal? Ok back to sleep now...

AussieMark · #19 Postby **AussieMark** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 1:34 am

Lili struck <B>Intracoastal City, Louisiana</B>

October 3, 1300 UTC
90 mph
963 mb.

bayouwxman · #20 Postby **bayouwxman** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 2:22 am

Here you go:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002lili.shtml

Models hint Gulf action?

Models hint Gulf action?

That's right..

Yep your right PC Tracker

definately........

right PT . . .

Landfalling Oct. Gulf Canes, Brownsville to West Panhandle

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