12z ETA - 12z GFS at 60 hours

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Stormsfury
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12z ETA - 12z GFS at 60 hours

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:00 am

12z ETA initialized better than the 06z ETA which took Isabel into Wilmington. 12z still takes Isabel between ILM and Hatteras, but definitely farther EAST than the 6z run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif

GFS still about the same ...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif

Waiting on other model guidance to roll in ... but it's looking more like landfall point will be on the NC coast ...
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#2 Postby john697 » Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:47 am

Between Wilmington and Hatteras looks reasonable to me. Would not be surprised at a closer to Wilmington landfall if the NE ridge builds in a little stronger. Anyway, folks in Eastern NC, VA, and MD are in for quite a blow. Suspect it will be a moderate cat 2 on landfall.
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#3 Postby TheWeatherZone » Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:50 am

Looking at the models runs on the WREL site, it looks as if the tracks are ever so slightly EAST of what they were last night. I could be seeing things, I could be wrong. And I don't really think Isabel is going to head to Western PA. I'm thinking more on the lines of Central PA. OoO well. Should be interesting wherever she goes.

Mike~
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#4 Postby JCT777 » Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:59 am

WeatherZone - I agree with your thinking regarding central PA vs. western PA. Time will tell, of course.
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