JETMAXX-URGENT QUESTION FOR YOU

[rob8303]

JETMAXX, I just had a thought. If this storm does rapidly deepen and the evacuation orders aren't as extensive as they should have been, we're in for some deep trouble, aren't we? IS THERE STILL TIME FOR EVACS?

[GalvestonDuck]

Things are going to get busier the closer we get to landfall, so I'm just politely giving this a bump up because it doesn't look like Perry's online at the moment -- probably catching a nap in between advisories.

Rob...have you done your homework?

[wx247]

I think Rob brings up a good point.

[Rainband]

I think the NHC has all the possibilities on the table and are making knowledgeable and precise decisions

[wx247]

I agree Rainband, but remember it is the local officials that make the evacuation decisions.

[JetMaxx]

Once hurricane warnings are issued at 11 p.m., a lot of vunerable locations will begin evacuations...but the facts are you CANNOT drag families from their homes and apartments and throw them in jail..

NHC needs to be proactive and reinterate to the public that Isabel is LIKELY to be a major hurricane at landfall...possibly 125 mph or more.

[Rainband]

Hopefully people aren't complacent. The local officials will do a great job making sure they aren't I trust

[Josephine96]

I know here in Central Florida, a lot of the main coastal roads are closed when winds reach a certain speed.. I remember from both Erin and Floyd that once winds hit a certain speed, the drawbridges get locked and they order the roads shut..

They do the same with the public buses here.. when winds reach a certain speed.. they stop running..

Does anybody living in these areas have anything similar..? Just wondering out of curiosity..

[themusk]

I'd like to have confidence that the message is getting out that this might be a major hurricane--- but I don't.

Not because of the NWS or the local emergency management offices-- but because most people get their information from The Weather Channel. And I don't know how many times I've wanted to strangle those bozos for giving out the impression that it's now "only" not quite a Category Three. The words "only" and "hurricane" do not belong in the same sentence.

AFAIK, almost every intensity forecast for the last week put it around a cat. 3 at landfall (ie, no one was expecting it to stay a Cat. 5). Nobody credible was ever afraid it would hit land as a Cat. 5. Everyone has been concerned about it hitting just the wrong places as a Cat. 3, and it might still do that.

I wonder if, next spring, The Weather Channel will be reassuring residents of the Midwest not to worry, that that tornado plowing towards them is "only" an F-2, maybe an F-3, and not one of those really bad F-5s

(Of course they're not all bozos at TWC. But there's enough bozoness among the pretend mets to mislead plenty of people.)

[ncbird]

Themusk I can tell you first hand the way things are being stated from the TV weather reports they are having an affect on how some people are reacting. My husband works for a vacation type resort and some of the people vacationing there were saying today they were gonna stick around because they were hearing on the TV reports its ONLY a cat 2 now. Its a big problem because many of these people have no idea of what they are in for.

[Lindaloo]

I just saw some video on TWC of VA Beach. People were flocking to the hardware stores and loading plywood.

[JetMaxx]

I'm catching some flack for forecasting a strong cat-3 at landfall....but there is that possibility....even DT is now saying "moderate cat-3" (i.e.- 120-125 mph)

I've also recieved two emails this evening....one from a veteran tv chief meteorologist & former NWS meteorologist and the other from a retired NHC forecaster, and both said I'm on the beam....there is a decent chance this hurricane could deepen to 130 mph before landfall.

Remember....hurricane Hazel occurred in MID-OCTOBER and was a 135 mph (938mb) cat-4 in the Wilmington/ Myrtle Beach area. Even though 1954 was a very hot summer in the southeast, there's no way the sst's offshore were any warmer on October 15th than they are right now (and Hugo occurred later in September than this also).

[debbiet]

I'm impressed with your accuracy so far JETMAXX! Still a bit nervous here on the east coast of VA though...worst case scenario would bring it in on the forcast tracks further east as shown yesterday. Fortunately everything looks like it's shifting west...just wondering what your best guess at the chances that the eye will cross EAST of Richmond versus WEST of Richmond? :?

[JetMaxx]

Debbie, the model data indicates a track from near Ocracoke to Roanoke Rapids, NC....then to just west of Richmond.....which is bad news for Richmond, but honestly very good news for Norfolk and Virginia Beach...as well as the Delmarva Peninsula --they'll get hurricane force winds in greater Norfolk IMO, but missing the core will mean the difference in 125-150 mph gusts and 75-100....and thus much less damage.

I don't expect 90 mph sustained winds in Richmond....those winds will be over Chesapeake Bay (over the water)....I look for sustained winds in Richmond of 50-70 mph with gusts of 75-90...possibly 100 IF Isabel is as strong as I believe at landfall..

If I'm overestimating the intensity (i.e.- if NHC is right about 110 mph at landfall)....the winds in Richmond and Norfolk will be much lower....probably gusts of 70-85 mph in Norfolk and 50-60 in Richmond....or like a severe thunderstorm.