Model performance?

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ncwx
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Model performance?

#1 Postby ncwx » Tue Sep 16, 2003 10:42 pm

New poster, great site! For my first post I have a question.

Which model has been the closest to predicting the track. At given times, I realize one might be better than others. In general, which one has the best handle on Isabel.

Thanks in advance for your opinion.
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Derecho
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#2 Postby Derecho » Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:24 pm

It's not an opinion, it's a mathematical calculation...

Fortunately, I have a program that calculates error..

The lowest 120 hour track error for Isabel has been the GFDL, with 141 miles average error.

It's also the best at 72 hours (So far.)

An average of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS (GUNA) has beaten the GFDL slightly.
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Deenac813
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#3 Postby Deenac813 » Wed Sep 17, 2003 6:19 am

Thanks Derecho.. that was a great post.. I was wondering the same thing myself & you really broke it down for us!
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Aquawind
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Wed Sep 17, 2003 6:21 am

Cool... I want that program!! :)
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