If Isabel doesn't strike as a major hurricane...

[JetMaxx]

If Miles Lawrence, wxman57, and others are correct and Isabel fizzles or fails to be a major hurricane at landfall.....it's almost a certainty we will see the longest period between landfalling U.S. major hurricanes since before any of us were born...

The last major hurricane to strike the U.S. was Bret in August 1999....there were no landfalling major hurricanes in 2000, 2001, 2002, or so far in 2003.

We are now 49 months and counting since Bret. If Isabel fails to become a cat-3 again, it is almost certain there will be no major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. the remainder of September -- nothing in the long range guidance to indicate a significant hurricane threat through September 30th....meaning 50 months between major hurricanes.....and that hasn't occurred since the 1920's period when no major hurricane struck the U.S. between October 1921 and August 1926 -- a 58 month lull.


NOTE: If there are no landfalling U.S. major hurricanes in October
(the last one was Opal in 1995....and before that Hilda in 1964, so the odds are IMO very low), we would in all likelyhood exceed that record.....August 1999 to August 2004 would be 60 months.

[wxman57]

Well, I'm fairly certain now it won't be a major at landfall, maybe not even a hurricane. It's amazing how lucky the U.S. has been in the past 33 years, not just the past 3-4.

[JetMaxx]

Some idiot emailed me this afternoon claiming credit for "weakening" Isabel; and said if she began to intensify (he'd read my forecast posts here) -- he'd "fly out there with more dyno-stuff and finish the job"

[JetMaxx]

It is amazing wxman57....only one major landfalling hurricane (Fran) since 1996, and no hurricane since Andrew has crossed the U.S. coast with winds more than 115-120 mph (I thought Bret was 125, but NHC's record says 115).

Only two cat-4 landfalling hurricanes since 1970....it is incredible, and quite frightening considering all the population increase in areas of the U.S. coastline prone to severe hurricanes....because sooner or later, we will pay the piper

[soonertwister]

I'm thinking that the U.S. has been on an incredible streak of weather luck.

Every single potentially dangerous tropical system has encountered terrible environmental conditions for years now.

I'm afraid that when this streak ends, we could get slammed 3-4 times in a single year.

[JetMaxx]

It could happen sooner twister....

The U.S. was struck by three major hurricanes in 1893, 1909, 1933, and 1954 (Carol, Edna, and Hazel)...

In 1915, the U.S. was hit by TWO cat-4's in the same season....the Galveston/Houston area (135 mph) in mid-August and the New Orleans area (145 mph) in late September. A repeat of that season would be catastrophic (damage toll).

It's incredible....the U.S. was slammed by two cat-4's in 1915...and there have only been two cat-4's since 1970 :o
The fact the lack of severe landfalling hurricanes coinciding with the tremendous building boom on America's east and gulf coasts is left us sitting ducks....when severe hurricanes once again begin smashing cities such as Miami, Tampa, Houston, New Orleans, and southern New England again with the same frightening frequency as they did in the past (before 1970).

[AussieMark]

The US has been incredibly lucky especially since 1995

1995-Opal weakened from a Strong 4 to a weak 3 in 12 hours.

1996-If Bertha had more time over water could have been a 3.

1998-
Bonnie weakened just before landfall
Georges could have been a 3 at landfall on the Mississippi coast

1999
Bret hit the most unpopulated stretch of the US coast.
Floyd weakened just before landfall.

So al in all eventually luck will run out and some of these massive Category 3-4-5 Cape Verde Hurricanes will make landfall as often as Category 2's are in recent times.

[JetMaxx]

Yeah, and if Georges had tracked only 50-60 miles farther north and had missed Hispanola, the middle and upper Florida Keys would have been wiped off the map....I figure Georges would have been at least a 140 mph hurricane in South Florida...they were sooooh extremely lucky (and with Floyd too).