Isabel has a EYE! Where is thre dry air killing her folks?

Guest · #1 Postby **Guest** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 7:46 am

well the DRY coming in is going to kill Isabel scenario has turned out to be complete CRAP.... she has a EYE wednesday morning

gee.... what a surprise. NOT!
The development of a clear EYE that was NOT there yesterday afternoon is NOT a sign of weakening.

DING... next whacky thory please

njbeachwx · #2 Postby **njbeachwx** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 7:50 am

OOOFF!

Howlin · #3 Postby **Howlin** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 7:50 am

Can you say "Hugo?" I knew you could. 8-)

Nature's Fury · #4 Postby **Nature's Fury** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 7:54 am

I just spoke with my Aunt at Topsail Island and they are being told out there that Isabel is nothing to be concerned about and the winds would not be more than 50mph. So she is intending on staying unless a Mand. Evac. is issued. She also stated that there are a lot of people staying. Besides, she works at the pier and has to go into work at 11am. Lord...these people may be in for a ride!
Angela

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:02 am

Give it time, DT. The cold is ir flowing off the coast toward Isabel now. You can see the frontal boundary just ahead of Isabel off the coast.

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:04 am

Yeah so YOU predict its weakening or dying... and we wake up and it has an EYE? and you STILL think you are right?

sure 57.... Hey Never lets FACTS and reality interfere with a good a theory

wxman57 wrote:Give it time, DT. The cold is ir flowing off the coast toward Isabel now. You can see the frontal boundary just ahead of Isabel off the coast.

wrkh99 · #7 Postby **wrkh99** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:05 am

Its starting to sound like the Springer show on here !

#8 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:16 am

Yup! Just started a few days ago. Wonder why? :o {tongue in cheek}

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:17 am

First of all, we're just having a debate about the effects of cool, dry air entrainment into Isabel. This isn't Jerry Springer! :wink:

Here's the latest shot of my workstation with ship/buoy data, Metars, & satellite.

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/isabel53.gif

I've drawn in the position of the front (sorry, didn't take the time to draw it properly, I just used a dashed blue line. North of the front is some VERY cool air. Note the buoy off Wilmington has 73 degrees - that's pretty low for water in the 80s. Note the 52 dew point west of Wilmington and upper 50s along the coast. Such cool air will increasingly invade Isabel as it approaches the coast. The question is - can Isabel make it to the coast before significant weakening occurs? We shall see.....

weathergymnast · #10 Postby **weathergymnast** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:17 am

^^ Ok.. Can we each say that each has their own opinion about what is happening and what is going to happen.

Nature's Fury · #11 Postby **Nature's Fury** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:19 am

Well, I think everyone is of course enduring stress and therefore "firing off" too quickly. But, EVERYONE has their own opinion and the "freedom of speech", at least for the time being until that is stopped too. Izzy has options and avenues she should could very well take. I like to know all the avenues so I can be better prepared either way. I respect all these guys opinions. They are doing a great job!
Angela

Superstorm · #12 Postby **Superstorm** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:20 am

Hey Never lets FACTS and reality interfere with a good a theory

Sounds an evolution debate

#13 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:22 am

Isabel's eye is very ragged looking not the sign of a strong hurricane or for that matter a strengthening one. But at least she has an eye so I
will give her credit for that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

chadtm80 · #14 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:24 am

Thanks as always for your well thought out and (here is the key) RESPECTFULL posts wxman.. I for one realy appreciate it.. Some just feel they need to be RUDE to get there point across.. Refreshing to have a met such as your self..

Thanks

Aquawind · #15 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:27 am

chadtm80 wrote:Thanks as always for your well thought out and (here is the key) RESPECTFULL posts wxman.. I for one realy appreciate it.. Some just feel they need to be RUDE to get there point across.. Refreshing to have a met such as your self..

Thanks

Well Said.. Nothing unusual unfortunately..far from Springer like.. a respectable debate is a good thing...

#16 Postby **Mattie** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:28 am

(Previously posted at StormCenter's post regarding subtropical) DT - with all due respect - did you get up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? Last night we were seeing and hearing from various professional weather forecasters and others about the dry air, so bear with us here please. (BTW - you weren't here) Most of us here aren't professional or we wouldn't have to be getting insight from a "chat board". Even professionals disagree on methods, ideas, and interpret data differently in every aspect of the professional world (as we see a classic example unfolding here). Please give us some slack this morning. I know I appreciate hearing all the viewpoints and discovering why and how the theories come about. Right or wrong - we all learn a little something from each situation.

Lindaloo · #17 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:29 am

I second that Chad. Thanks wxman57.

Rainband · #18 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:32 am

Lindaloo wrote:I second that Chad. Thanks wxman57.

Can I third that :wink:

Time will tell the story in the mean time..Lets be Nice and see if Wxman57 is correct..like he usually is :wink:

#19 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 8:53 am

The funny thing is the NHC mentions the dry/cool air in their 5am discussion so obviously they are seeing the same thing. So I guess DT can argue with them too.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC. ISABEL CURRENTLY LACKS A TIGHT CENTRAL CORE AND STRONG CONVECTION...AND EVEN IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY. VERTICAL SHEAR AND POSSIBLY DRY AIR STILL SEEM TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...SO ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR AT LEAST 12 HR UNTIL THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND IMPROVES THE OUTFLOW. EVEN THEN...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING. AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION IS A SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN ISABEL AND THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... WITH OBSERVATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF COOL AIR WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 20C. INGESTING THAT AIR WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN 95 KT UNTIL LANDFALL BASED MAINLY ON THE PREMISE THAT THE LARGE AND SPRAWLING VORTEX WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT... EITHER FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...OTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIOS INCLUDE STRENGTHENING DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH... AND WEAKENING DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.

FORECASTER BEVEN

bzukajo · #20 Postby **bzukajo** » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:02 am

Nature's Fury wrote:I just spoke with my Aunt at Topsail Island and they are being told out there that Isabel is nothing to be concerned about and the winds would not be more than 50mph. So she is intending on staying unless a Mand. Evac. is issued. She also stated that there are a lot of people staying. Besides, she works at the pier and has to go into work at 11am. Lord...these people may be in for a ride!
Angela

I lived On Topsail. It is a tiny sliver of land that floods in just moderate weather......It will be VERY dangerous there.

Isabel has a EYE! Where is thre dry air killing her folks?

Isabel has a EYE! Where is thre dry air killing her folks?

Give her Time

Re: Give her Time

Pic

Eye very ragged

Funny thing is.

Who is online