TPC Raises Probability of Isabel Passing within 65 NM of NYC

[donsutherland1]

Yes, the TPC's 5 a.m. strike probabilities chart shows a 10% probability of this happening compared to 7% at the same time yesterday.

Seriously, putting aside the tease, odds are overwhelmingly against such a scenario. If one were to ask a girl for a date and she said that she would think it over and, when pressed suggested that there was a 10% chance she would accept the date, then one shouldn't necessarily make plans based on her reply. Likewise, one shouldn't assume differently with regard to Isabel.

In fact, overnight, Isabel was exceptionally well-behaved with regard to her track. Thus, confidence should be high that she will make landfall along the NC coast, probably in an area ranging from Morehead City to Cape Hatteras.

Overnight there was an important development: The extent of Isabel's turn to the north ended after peaking at 349 degrees between 2 pm and 5 pm yesterday. Her course ranged from 330 degrees to 337 degrees (330 degrees in the most recent 3-hour period ended at 8 am), averaging 333 degrees over the past 15 hours.

Given the hints on the water vapor satellite imagery that the ridge is starting to build westward and Isabel's having ceased her turn to the north, I believe a gradual turn away from the north will be commencing as the day wears on.

This is a turn that has been advertised extensively by DT.

What this all means is that Isabel remains on course for a North Carolina landfall and then passage to the west of the major cities from Washington, DC northward.