Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 46
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 17, 2003
...Isabel continues north-northwestward...coastal warnings
updated...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina
to Chincoteague virgina...including Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area...generally within 24 hours.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
At 11 am...a Tropical Storm Warning has replaced the Hurricane Watch
south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north
of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning has also replaced the Hurricane Watch for
the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal
Potomac.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located
near latitude 30.0 north... longitude 72.6 west or about 400 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph. Some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. On
the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make
landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday.
However...the precise timing and location of landfall is
uncertain...and conditions will deteriorate over a large area well
before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coastline late tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is forecast prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315
miles.
The most recent minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 957 mb...28.26 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near
and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm
surge flooding of 4 to 7 ft above normal tide levels is expected in
southern Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher
amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...30.0 N... 72.6 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 957 mb.
For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office...and statements from
local emergency management officials.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
11 am 30.0n 72.6w 110mph 957 mb
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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seahawkjd
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11 am 30.0n 72.6w 110mph 957 mb
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AussieMark
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