I just got this off the FSU text recon data site....I didn't post it, but the last vortex fix at 1449z found a central pressure of 956 mb.....flight level winds of 115 kts (132 mph) in the NE quadrant = 100-105 kt (115-120 mph at the sea surface).
URNT14 KNHC 171535
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01283 10746 13079 10906 32038
02285 20745 23072 20806 33041
03286 30743 33056 30907 32055
04288 40741 43034 40906 32056
05290 50739 53010 51006 31059
06292 60737 63980 61106 31062
07293 70735 73936 71308 31067
08295 80733 83878 81010 33080
09297 90731 93823 91511 31048
10299 00729 03770 01412 31034
MF295 M0733 MF080
OBS 01 AT 1407Z
OBS 10 AT 1445Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 31035
01303 10725 13715 11413 14037
02305 20723 23784 21111 14076
03306 30721 33836 31010 15101
04308 40719 43901 40808 14112
05310 50717 53964 51007 14096
06312 60715 63001 61109 14091
07313 70713 73029 70908 14087
08315 80711 83052 80808 14083
09317 90708 93073 90808 14080
10319 00706 03086 00808 15085
MF307 M0720 MF115
OBS 01 AT 1453Z
OBS 10 AT 1533Z
OBS 10 SFC WND /////
RMK AF866 2113A ISABEL OB 09
Latest recon: 956 mb...flight level winds of 115 kts
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JetMaxx
And here's the 1449z (10:49 a.m.) vortex fix....peak winds 80 kts in the SW quad but 115 kts in the NE...outbound leg..
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/1449Z
B. 30 DEG 07 MIN N
72 DEG 41 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2715 M
D. 80 KT
E. 220 DEG 56 NM
F. 327 DEG 80 KT
G. 220 DEG 046 NM
H. 956 MB
I. 11 C/ 3034 M
J. 15 C/ 3073 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. WEAK CLOSED
M. CO40-60
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF866 2113A ISABEL OB 05
MAX FL WIND 80 KT SW QUAD 1436Z.
MAX FL TEMP 16C 218/21
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/1449Z
B. 30 DEG 07 MIN N
72 DEG 41 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2715 M
D. 80 KT
E. 220 DEG 56 NM
F. 327 DEG 80 KT
G. 220 DEG 046 NM
H. 956 MB
I. 11 C/ 3034 M
J. 15 C/ 3073 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. WEAK CLOSED
M. CO40-60
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF866 2113A ISABEL OB 05
MAX FL WIND 80 KT SW QUAD 1436Z.
MAX FL TEMP 16C 218/21
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soonertwister
- Category 5
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Just looking at the high-res visible pics of Isabel, I would swear that she's looking the best she's looked in over 2 days.
Category 3 at landfall may not be a stretch. I hope people are prepared. I know that as of now Ocean City, Maryland is only at stage 1 evacuation - tourists and those persons in non-substantial homes or in areas highly prone to flooding.
They might want to think about stage 2 for the Maryland coastal communities really soon.
Category 3 at landfall may not be a stretch. I hope people are prepared. I know that as of now Ocean City, Maryland is only at stage 1 evacuation - tourists and those persons in non-substantial homes or in areas highly prone to flooding.
They might want to think about stage 2 for the Maryland coastal communities really soon.
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Nature's Fury
- Tropical Low
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vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
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I fear that as prepared as most appear to be on the E coast that many have been lulled into complacency by the weakening. for those that have been around a long time and choose to stay, I say fine let me know who your next of kin are. For the others I pray the authorities make them leave now. Even at the strength she is at now she is still a DANGEROUS hurricane and sth estorm surge will cover much of the outerbanks anyway. Lots of damage from battering waves especially since they will more than likely always be on the "bad side" of the storm as it passes. Also entering into the picture is the high to the North will be adding to the surge and winds as Isabel moves North. This could cause gale force winds all the way to SNE and some serious surge coastal flooding.
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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Lowpressure
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Lowpressure wrote:WEATHER53 I worjk in Alexandria-whats up. What are your thought on this? I am a Floridian so everyone is asking me for advice. I think she will catch most of this area off guard.
I think that we tend to make too much of a move over what happens in a 1-3 hour time period rather than allowing about 6-9 hours to pass before stating any real change in thinking with about what is to happen. I fell into that last night when 2 or 3 people who could put forth some articulate discussion stated strongly that the whole thing was falling apart due to dry air entraining. It turn out that #1 that was temporary and #2 Isabelle survived it anyway.
As far as DC metro I have been advising our customers that either side of 60 mph is a good call for DC metro, could be 50, could be 70 but do not see much more variability than that. There is going to be a problem with downed trees here which will disrupt power and possibly phone and even more so will block primary and secondary streets making car travel difficult for a few days.
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