Some input please

[Colin]

Hey guys,

I just want to know your opinions on what E PA will get from this storm...rainfall amounts, winds, and how long it will last.

Thanks!

[Colin]

**BUMP** Anyone????

[JQ Public]

east PA just may be spared the worst of this storm...if it does track closer to pittsburgh. If it tracks closer to baltimore and moves N and not NW then you may be in for some heavier rain and wind.

[vbhoutex]

Depending on whether you are in Southern or Northern Eastern Pennsylvania, you could expect from 1"-5" of rain with higher isolated amounts and sustained winds ranging up to as much as 50-60 mphwith some higher gusts. Winds, of course will be stronger in the southern regions than northern regions and the higher in elevation you go. This is all dependent on Isabel staying on the current predicted track.

[Colin]

Thanks guys...the one thing I am noticing is that it is moving NNW still...I'm thinking that could allow it to make landfall more in Virginia rather than NC, and could give us more wind/rain...am I right here?

[JCT777]

Colin - you will be right if it keeps moving NNW and does not soon turn more toward the NW.

[Rainband]

Thanks guys...the one thing I am noticing is that it is moving NNW still...I'm thinking that could allow it to make landfall more in Virginia rather than NC, and could give us more wind/rain...am I right here?

Here ya go colin:)

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fxus61 kctp 171849
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
250 PM EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2003




Model consensus is strong for a landfalling Isabel to hit the North Carolina
coast sometime Thursday afternoon or evening. AVN drives it into the
Pamlico Sound area while the ETA model is a tad south between Jacksonville
and Wilmington. System has greatly diminished in intensity from the
text book Cat 5 storm it was 2 days ago. Overall outflow is looking
more healthy than it did yesterday...but still today a huge chunk of
dry air can be seen rotating around the eye...even on the visual
loops. This is doing its best to hinder much in the way of deepening
despite what appears to be a favorable upper environment.


GFS has been hard to beat forecasting the track of Isabel to date. It
takes the storm up just about over aoo/jst by Friday afternoon.
Anomalies associated with this forecast track are predictably off the charts.
Low level jet and shear exceed scale values. Precipitable waters do not get quite
as high...only on the order of 2-3 standard dev above normal as system
passes through. At any rate...with strong southeasterly flow...laden with
tropical moisture...riding up the terrain...excessive rains seem a
likelihood. Of concern will be what should be an approaching warm
frontal type feature which no model adequately depicts. This would
be the return of the front that passed through a day or so ago ushering
in the crisp dry air we are enjoying currently. Interaction with
this feature could very well spawn heavy rains somewhat removed from
the direct effects of Isabel...in areas where we might not otherwise
suspect to be vulnerable to heavy rains from direct associated with the
storm. Impossible top say at this range even if this will be the
case...let alone where...but will not be surprised if we see a
secondary maxima over eastern or northestern PA from the front.


In the mean time...went with slowly increasing clouds later tonight
and Thursday...and introduced precipitation from southeast--NW by the end of the day.
Am not confident in my high probability of precipitation over southern tier as I think we are
most likely to see mainly scattered rain shower or even some patchy drizzle in what
should essentially be at the onset...a cool air damming scenario...but
yielded to the consensus to my south and east for a more aggressive
onset of precipitation. AVN lifted index forecasts show The Wedge of stable air holding
right into early Friday morning. Thinking at this time is that wind
will not get terribly gusty as long as we remain dammed and
stable...but should pick up in gusts as surface system starts to move into
southern PA and we see the inversion begin to break down. After
that...went with generalized 20-30 miles per hour winds with higher
gusts...especially over western high terrain. Just have a hard time
buying sustained thunderstorms force winds this far inland. If system doesn't
manage to intensify any further...it will just be all the harder to
maintain the wind on the track inland.


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...Flood Watch for Friday.


La corte My sister lives in Montoursville :o