TROPICAL STORM WARNING
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016-020>027-172200-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1135 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2003
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...
...HURRICANE ISABEL APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...
IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
CECIL...KENT...QUEEN ANNES...TALBOT AND CAROLINE.
IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SALEM...CUMBERLAND...CAPE MAY...ATLANTIC...OCEAN...MONMOUTH...
AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON.
IN DELAWARE...
NEW CASTLE...KENT...AND SUSSEX.
THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE ENTIRE DELAWARE BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY
EXCEED 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. THE PERIOD
OF STRONGEST WINDS...HEAVIEST RAIN AND POSSIBLE TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 650 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY.
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS LOCATED IN AND NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SHOULD
PREPARE FOR HIGH WINDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AGGRAVATED BY
HEAVY WAVE ACTION. PEOPLE INLAND SHOULD PREPARE FOR STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING.
...RAINFALL AND INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER A WIDE AREA WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
IN THE MORE ORGANIZED OUTER BANDS.
...STORM SURGE...WAVES AND TIDAL FLOODING...
THE THREAT OF STORM SURGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM MID DAY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALONG THE NORTHEAST SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND DELAWARE BAY...AS WELL AS THE OCEAN FRONT...TIDAL SURGES OF 3 TO
5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. THIS SURGE WOULD BE ON TOP OF THE NORMAL TIDE
HEIGHT AND WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THAT.
...WIND INFORMATION...
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE DAY...THEN INCREASE TO 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
IN THE RANGE OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR
THE SHORE OF THE DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS. GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EAST
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
$$
...HIGH TIDES...
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND POSSIBLE WATER LEVELS FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AROUND THE AREA:
LOCATION TIME OF HIGH TIDE HEIGHT ABOVE MLLW
SANDY HOOK NJ THU 152 PM 6.5 TO 7.0 FT
FRI 236 AM 8.0 TO 8.5 FT
FRI 245 PM 6.5 TO 7.0 FT
ATLANTIC CITY NJ THU 131 PM 6.0 TO 6.5 FT
FRI 208 AM 8.0 TO 8.5 FT
FRI 232 PM 6.5 TO 7.0 FT
CAPE MAY NJ THU 159 PM 6.5 TO 7.0 FT
(OCEAN) FRI 243 AM 8.0 TO 8.5 FT
FRI 252 PM 6.5 TO 7.0 FT
BREAKWATER HARBOR DE THU 246 PM 6.5 TO 7.0 FT
(BAY) FRI 313 AM 8.0 TO 8.5 FT
FRI 345 PM 6.5 TO 7.0 FT
FENWICK ISLAND DE THU 138 PM 6.5 TO 7.0 FT
FRI 222 AM 8.0 TO 8.5 FT
FRI 231 PM 6.5 TO 7.0 FT
TOLCHESTER MD THU 1242 PM 4.0 TO 4.5 FT
FRI 235 AM 5.0 TO 5.5 FT
FRI 147 PM 4.5 TO 5.0 FT
CAMBRIDGE MD THU 1123 PM 4.5 TO 5.0 FT
FRI 1035 AM 5.0 TO 5.5 FT
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 PM EDT
TODAY.
$$
MORE PREPAREDNESS AND WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
SITE AT http://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI.
JJM
HEADLINE CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY AND ALL
OF ATLANTIC...OCEAN...CAPE MAY...AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES.
Tropical Storm Warning posted for extreme Southern NJ
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Josephine96
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Josephine96
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Anonymous
Turning North After Landfall
Could it be the turn more back to the North after landfall? They might be concerned it will turn more sharply North a few hours after landfall and give Mid-Atlantic and Southern NE States some of the winds from the NE quadrant of whatever is left of Isabel at that time.
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Tropical storm force winds currently extend over 300 miles from the center of Isabel. That combined with the high pressure to the north (which will enhance the winds based on the tight pressure gradient between the high and Isabel) could allow for winds in southern NJ to be sustained at 40+ MPH.
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Stephanie
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23843
- Age: 63
- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
- Location: Glassboro, NJ
JCT777 wrote:Tropical storm force winds currently extend over 300 miles from the center of Isabel. That combined with the high pressure to the north (which will enhance the winds based on the tight pressure gradient between the high and Isabel) could allow for winds in southern NJ to be sustained at 40+ MPH.
I forgot about the presure gradient issue with the high pressure.
I just didn't realize how far out the tropical winds extended! It'll beinteresting at work the next two days!!
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