5 PM EDT UPDATE, WARNINGS, FORECASTS, AND IMPACTS

[WXBUFFJIM]

HURRICANE NEWS AND NEW EVACUATIONS

Good evening everyone. Some brand new information today. As of 11 AM EDT, mandatory evacuations have been ordered from low lying coastlines along the Virginia coast including the Virginia coastal areas of the Chesapeake Bay. Over 450,000 people live in low lying coastal areas in southeast Virginia. This mandatory evacuation includes Virginia Beach east of Pacific Avenue. The ocean front hotels are not a good place to be. In addition a mandatory evacuation continues throughout the outer banks of North Carolina and will continue into this evening. The biggest concern is the hurricane moving onshore at times of high tide Thursday afternoon, which would make the high tides already in place even higher. A dangerous situation indeed.

The governors of 4 states, North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware and Maryland have all declared state of emergencies well ahead of the storm. That means the national guard, state police, and dept of transportation will be on full alert status during the entire storm.

HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the entire North Carolina coast from Cape Fear northward up to Chicoteague, Virginia. This includes the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward and the Outer Banks. Cities and communities in the hurricane warning include Morehead City, Wrightsville Beach, Cape Hatteras, Virginia Beach and Norfolk, Virginia. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. Further north, the hurricane watches in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac have been changed to tropical storm warnings. In addition a tropical storm warning is in effect from Cape Fear to South Santee River, South Carolina and north of Chicoteague, Virginia to Sandy Hook, New Jersey including the Delaware Bay. A tropical storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less.

5 PM EDT ADVISORY ON ISABEL

At 5 PM EDT, Isabel has held it's own with a slightly lower central pressure in recent hours. At 5 PM EDT, the center of Isabel was located about 315 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina at 31.1 north, 73.3 west. Movement is towards the north northwest at a faster forward speed of 13 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a increase in forward speed through the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 105 mph with higher gusts. Isabel will likely strengthen slightly before landfall and could become a minimal category 3 hurricane before landfall on Thursday.

Isabel is a very large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 115 miles while tropical storm force winds extend outward 315 miles.

Minimum central pressure has fallen to 955 mb or 28.20 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7-12 feet above normal tide levels can be expected near or to the right of where Isabel makes landfall along the Carolina coastline. Storm surge flooding of 4-8 feet above normal tide levels can be expected over the southern Chesapeake Bay and tidal potomac river basin and adjacent rivers. Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches is expected in areas in the path of Isabel. Isolated tornadoes are also possible particularly in the right front quadrant of the circulation in the outer feeder rain bands.

Once again at 5 PM EDT, Isabel is centered at 31.1 north, 73.3 west. Movement nnw at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds 105 mph. Minimum central pressure 955 mb/28.20 inches. The next advisories will be issued at 8 pm and 11 pm tonight.

Jim

[JCT777]

You are tireless Jim! I think you will need to sleep for a week when Isabel is gone.

Thanks for the continuing updates!