HURRICANE STATEMENT
AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ024-033-034-046-180134-
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
534 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003
...LARGE HURRICANE ISABEL CLOSING IN ON THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
BLADEN...COLUMBUS...ROBESON...PENDER...NEW HANOVER...BRUNSWICK AND
IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...HORRY AND GEORGETOWN.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR TO CHINCOTEAGUE
VIRGINIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BRUNSWICK
COUNTY SOUTH ACROSS HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA.
REMEMBER...A HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS.
ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND CEDAR ISLAND BETWEEN NOON AND
1 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISABEL TO TRACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BEFORE LANDFALL REQUIRES THAT THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BE AS FAR WEST AS CAPE FEAR. THE PRECISE TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
OVER A LARGE AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THURSDAY FOR
BLADEN...COLUMBUS AND ROBESON COUNTIES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
AS HURRICANE ISABEL MAKES LANDFALL. WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND AREAS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...OR 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THURSDAY AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...IN NORTH CAROLINA...BLADEN...BRUNSWICK...COLUMBUS...NEW
HANOVER AND PENDER.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE THE HURRICANE EXITS
TO THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
ELIZABETHTOWN TO SUPPLY. ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
RAINBANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN PENDER COUNTY.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105
MPH...MAKING ISABEL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE LATEST MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 955 MB OR 28.20 INCHES.
ISABEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.
...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
EVACUATE INLAND IF ASKED TO DO SO BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.
...LOCAL WIND IMPACTS...
AS ISABEL APPROACHES THE AREA...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER WINDS
NEAR THE COAST. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RANGE FROM
30 TO 40 KNOTS.
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF ISABEL...NORTH WINDS GREATER THAN 39
MPH WILL REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE AND SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...TURNING NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 40 TO 50 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS HORRY...ROBESON...COLUMBUS...
BLADEN AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY.
AS ISABEL MOVES FURTHER NORTH...WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING.
...STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS...
WITH THE MOON HALF FULL...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AT A MINIMUM. OCEAN
FRONT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND 130 AM AND 2 PM ON THURSDAY. TIDE
LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT ONE HALF FOOT TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
IF THE CENTER OF ISABEL FOLLOWS THE FORECAST PATH...PASSING CAPE
FEAR ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING...NORTH WINDS
WILL BLOW WATER PARALLEL TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF
THE COAST BELOW CAPE FEAR. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...MAINLY WITH SOUND-SIDE
FLOODING...WITH LITTLE SURGE EXCEPT MINOR SOUND-SIDE FLOODING
EXPECTED BELOW CAPE FEAR.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IMPACT OF
STORM SURGE WILL LESSEN BUT SOUND-SIDE FLOODING ON THE BARRIER
ISLANDS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAROLINA BEACH AREA.
HIGH SURF AND A LONG SHORE CURRENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST-FACING BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
SEAS OF 15 TO 17 FT WERE BEING REPORTED AT FRYING PAN SHOALS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 23 FT WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND
AROUND 20 FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
...SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...
ROUGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP AND LONG SHORE CURRENTS ARE ONGOING.
SWIMMERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF NEW
HANOVER COUNTY...WITH UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.
...NEXT UPDATE...
CHECK ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND STATEMENTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC FOR MORE
INFORMATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ILM
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9 PM.
$$
CAROPOLO
6 PM HLS FROM WILMINGTON {i plan on pst 9pm also}
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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