11 PM EDT UPDATE ON ISABEL!!! Landfall, intensity FCST..

[WXBUFFJIM]

HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES

Good evening everyone. Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel have reached the North Carolina coast this evening and conditions will only worsen overnight tonight through Thursday. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the entire North Carolina coast from Cape Fear northward up to Chicoteague, Virginia. This includes the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward and the Outer Banks. Cities and communities in the hurricane warning include Morehead City, Wrightsville Beach, Cape Hatteras, Virginia Beach and Norfolk, Virginia. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. Further north, the hurricane watches in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac have been changed to tropical storm warnings. In addition a tropical storm warning is in effect from Cape Fear to South Santee River, South Carolina and north of Chicoteague, Virginia to Sandy Hook, New Jersey including the Delaware Bay. A tropical storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. All preparations should have already been rushed to completion in the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.

11 PM EDT ADVISORY ON ISABEL

At 11 PM EDT, Isabel has held it's own during the day today and remains a strong category 2 hurricane on the saffir simpson scale. At 11 PM EDT, the center of Isabel was located about 250 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina at 31.9 north, 73.9 west. Movement is towards the north northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed through the next 24-36 hours. This will bring Isabel towards the Cape Hatteras area by mid afternoon Thursday. If isabel moves more towards Morehead City, landfall would be closer to noon EDT Thursday. Right now I'm thinking in between those two areas where landfall will occur.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 105 mph with higher gusts. Isabel could strengthen slightly before landfall and could become a minimal category 3 hurricane before landfall on Thursday. An offshore buoy off the North Carolina coast reported 74 mph wind gusts and seas of 32 feet. This high wave action will approach the outer banks of North Carolina outer bamnks tonight into Thursday morning.

Isabel is a very large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 115 miles while tropical storm force winds extend outward 315 miles.

Minimum central pressure is now 956 mb or 28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 8-12 feet above normal tide levels can be expected near or to the right of where Isabel makes landfall along the Carolina coastline. Storm surge flooding of 4-8 feet above normal tide levels can be expected over the southern Chesapeake Bay and tidal potomac river basin and adjacent rivers. Storm Surge flooding of 6-9 feet above normal tide levels can be expected along the Virginia Atlantic coast including Virginia Beach, Virginia. Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches is expected in areas in the path of Isabel. Isolated tornadoes are also possible particularly in the right front quadrant of the circulation in the outer feeder rain bands, particularly after midnight along the Virginia and North Carolina coast.

Once again at 11 PM EDT, Isabel is centered at 31.9 north, 73.9 west. Movement nnw at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds 105 mph. Minimum central pressure 956 mb/28.23 inches. The next advisories will be issued at 2 am and 5 am this morning.

Jim