Isabel heading toward a weakening faze

[John]

Hi Res, WV imagery strongly suggests that a large plum of dry air is continuing to entrain itself into the circulation center of Isabel, Isabel looks more like a Sub Tropical feature than the classic Hurricane she was just three days ago. There was only a slight drop in pressure reported by Recon, so I would expect the current intensity to be maintained a bit longer. The inner core structure is still not well defined, Isabel has a large Ragged banding type eye, such tropical Cyclones typically do not strengthen much if at all. IMO Isabel should continue to wind down slowly.

[Stormsfury]

I beg to differ ... IMO, Isabel may be trying to fight one last breath before landfall ... look at this WV imagery loop...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... geir3.html

[koto26]

Couldnt agree more SF

[Lindaloo]

I agree SF... but look at all that dry air being pushed towards her.

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry but Isabel is still missing those deep (dark red in color) areas of convection around her eye wall. Her eye wall remains distorted and not well rounded. As long as she doesn't have this then she status quo or less. I've said this already a million times before, she looks very extra tropical. I know the data says otherwise but that what it looks like to me. She has never been the same since she started moving more northward toward the very cool dry air and shear. IMO

[Wolfman21]

I'm sorry but Isabel is still missing those are deep (dark red in color) areas of convection around her eye wall. Her eye wall remains distorted and not well rounded. As long as she doesn't have this then she status quo or less. I've said this already a million times before, she looks very extra tropical. I know the data says otherwise but that what it looks like to me. She has never been the same since she started moving more northward toward the very cool dry air and shear. IMO

You cant judge a book by its cover buddy........

[Stormcenter]

In this case I think you can. Where is the deep convection around the eye wall? Don't get me wrong she will cause some major damage. I expect a lot wind but not as much rainfall as your "normal" tropical systems based on the dry she is coming into. Now sure things can change before she makes landfall but that's the way it stands as of right now. IMO

[Stormsfury]

I'm sorry but Isabel is still missing those are deep (dark red in color) areas of convection around her eye wall. Her eye wall remains distorted and not well rounded. As long as she doesn't have this then she status quo or less. I've said this already a million times before, she looks very extra tropical. I know the data says otherwise but that what it looks like to me. She has never been the same since she started moving more northward toward the very cool dry air and shear. IMO

Isabel is NOT extratropical ... RECON's already verified that ... 17C at the 700mb flight level is NOT extratropical. Latest IR imagery showing convection has totally wrapped around the center of Isabel once again. Isabel continues to fight and she will until she makes landfall ...

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e

[Stormcenter]

I didn't say she was "Extra Tropical". I said she "Looked extra tropical".
The fact is she does. Even though she may in not in fact be. I've tracked hurricanes for over 27 years and I've seen many of them via satellite imagery. She "looks" like many of the storms that become extra tropical in the atlantic as they move towards the north. The convection around the "eye wall" is not intense at all. The eye is VERY distorted and ragged.
The center is lopsided. Please look at past (2 days ago) infrared loops of Isabel before she started heading northward to see my point. The very cool dry air and shear are the key reasons for this. Like I said things can and may change before she makes landfall but that's the way I see it now. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Guest]

Can someone PLEASE explain to me how that image below shows Isabel weakining????????????? I think NOT! Case closed!

[weatherluvr]

Off the top of my head I can think of at least a dozen hurricanes that looked a lot worse than this on satellite photos.

[Wolfman21]

[url]http:/www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm13/isabelcurrentposition_large.html[/url]

LOL, i dont see her weakening here..... maybe just me.... I see a defined EYE, and it looks to be coming together.... But hey, thats an amateur just looking.....

[Stormcenter]

Please read the excerpt from the 11pm NHC discussion on Isabel.
It pretty much speaks for itself and what I've been trying to say.
Remember this is NOT me saying this it's the NHC. Nothing has changed since they wrote that. She still does NOT have any of what is mentioned below, bottom line. I would think you guys would be happy to know that instead of dissapointed.

ISABEL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 75 TO 80 KNOTS.

[Guest]

Stormcenter......What i am arguing is that Sat above which is a recent shot (Not 11pm) and sence 11pm as that shows she has been looking better and better!
If i am NOT mistaken this thread is titled ( Isabel is headed towards a weakening faze)?????
Which that Sat CLEARLY shows otherwise!

[Stormcenter]

Isabel has never recovered from her dry air/shear battle. She is now just a faint resemblance of what she once was. No folks despite all the worries Isabel will not be another Hugo. But she do some signifcant damage IF her winds are anything around 100 mph when she makes landfall.

[WEATHER53]

Several of the threads that contained a spirited, but civil, point-counterpoint about the idea that dry air would kill Isabel have apparemtly been taken down. Coming ashore at 100-110 mph is a Long way from being a goner. No one, no one, wanted a 150 mph hurricane but once the storm was down to the 110 and continued to show the ability to survive or deflect the dry air entrainment it was a bust to write this thing off. Sorta reminds me of winter where it is 40 but guys are harping that the cold air will come in at any moment and turn the rain to snow.

[JCT777]

Great points, 53. Certainly, Cat 2 Isabel is a dangerous storm to those living close to where she is making landfall.