South California and Arizona may get rain from Marty

[cycloneye]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/EP ... 2158W5.gif

If the track is correct you who live in those areas and are members in storm2k such as Joshua21young,azsnowman (Dennis) and others will get rain from this system that is growing as I type this post tropical storm now but will be hurricane Marty so watch over there for that.

[vbhoutex]

You beat me to it Cyc!! At least three models take him N and NE into AZ by the end of the week with at least one(GFDL)having him as a CAT1 at the N end of the Sea of Cortez. Definitely will be watching him.

[btangy]

I really doubt it'll be a CAT1 at the N end of the Sea of Cortez. Just the GFDL doing its usually wacky thing. Unless Marty trucks northward, what will probably happen is its mid-level center will decouple from its low-level center. The mid-level center will recurve into Baja and eventually wind up in the desert SW. The low-level center will be left somewhere in the Pacific or over Baja and dissipate. I've seen this happen with plenty a storm moving up Baja as it runs into upper level SWerlies, and I don't think the situation with Marty is any different. I think the NHC is being overly optimistic on how long Marty can remain a hurricane or even a TS once it gets north of Cabo San Lucas where there's a very strong SST gradient.

Both the San Diego and Oxnard NWS offices are expressing some doubts in their area forecast discussions, but San Diego has introduced a chance of showers for Wednesday just in case. I'm still going for just partly cloudy and warmer as we tend to get easterly (offshore) on the N side of the circulation, unless there's an abundance of cloud cover.

[weatherlover427]

Latest San Diego AFD:

.SYNOPSIS...*1st 5 lines removed to save space* MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARTY WILL APPROACH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

.DISCUSSION...*1st paragraph removed to save space*

HURRICANE MARTY IS DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWEST S OF BAJA...AND THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS SLOWED ITS TREK TOWARD THE DESERT SW WHERE IT WILL BE...AT MOST...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THEY HAVE IT ARRIVING E OF YUMA THU PM. 00Z MSO HAS MOISTURE ALOFT NOT EVEN INCREASING UNTIL TUE...SO THE SHOWERS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THEN...BUT MOISTURE COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH WED/THU FOR SHOWERS. INSTABILITY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TSTORM TOO.

ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE LONGWAVES AT MID LATITUDES OVER THE US BY WED/THU. THAT...A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND MARTY MAKE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL. USUALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WE HAVE AN INCREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE ZONES.

Latest LOX / Oxnard AFD:

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
955 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003

*removed to save space*

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO NEVADA ON TUE IN RESPONSE TO NORTHWARD MOVING TROPICAL STORM MARTY OVER CENTRAL BAJA. THE REMNANTS OF MARTY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH WED AND TO A POSITION JUST S OF YUMA ON THU. THE GFS FORECASTS SOME MOISTURE FROM MARTY SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SOCAL...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SE OF THE DISTRICT.

*also removed*

[azsnowman]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SUN SEP 21 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WARM
DAYS...AND COOL NIGHTS. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

.DISCUSSION...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING. ON TUESDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTERACTS WITH A RIDGE CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
MARTY NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA.

IN THE EXTENDED...MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MARTY WILL BE ADVECTED INTO ARIZONA AND THEN THE FLOW WILL BE TOO
WEAK TO MOVE THE MOISTURE OUT OF ARIZONA. FOR THIS REASON POPS RAMP
UP ON WEDNSDAY AND THEN WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

Dennis