000
ABNT20 KNHC 250845
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2003
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACW LOW AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW DOES NOT YET
HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY APPEAR
FAVORABLE...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
A AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
TWO - 530 AM
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AussieMark
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TWO - 530 AM
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Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
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2:15am Tampa Discussion is intersting reading.
.MODEL COMPARISON...BOTH GFS AND ETA ARE SUFFERING FROM RESPECTIVE
BIASES THIS PERIOD...WHICH MEANS GOING TO THE "BIG PICTURE" TO
DEVELOP A TREND. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEGINNING
THIS AFTN...CARRYING ASSOCIATED BOWLING BALL OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND N FL INTO SAT WHICH EVENTUALLY LINKS UP WITH DEEPER
AUTUMNAL TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE SE U.S. THIS ENERGY IMPULSE
FOCUSES IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS N
FL...SKEWING PCPN THREAT TO THE NATURE COAST AND POINTS N.
THE ETA MEANWHILE WANTS TO DEVELOP THE WEAKNESS NOW IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INTO A SUB-1010 HYBRID LOW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY
12Z SAT. AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE...IT STRENGTHENS E SFC WINDS OVER
THE PENINSULA WHILE THE GFS CARRIES SW FLOW. IN IT'S CASE...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/S
PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT.
SO...WHICH ROAD TO TAKE? NEITHER. THE BIG PICTURE SUPPORTS A
MODIFIED GFS SOLUTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND LOWERING 500 MB
HEIGHTS...SUPPORTING A BIT MORE SLOW/WEAKER SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE E GULF. FIRST LOOK AT CANADIAN ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...REMOVING THE
FEEDBACK.
.EXTENDED (SAT NIGHT-WED)...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU DURING
WEEKEND BRINGING TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. EXPECT ANY CHANCES
FOR RAIN TO BE SOUTH OF FORT MYERS AREA AS FRONT MAY STALL. KEPT
ISOLATED CHANCES THERE THRU WED. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD PUSH IN ON WED POSSIBLY BRINGING IN COLDEST LOWS OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT.
.MODEL COMPARISON...BOTH GFS AND ETA ARE SUFFERING FROM RESPECTIVE
BIASES THIS PERIOD...WHICH MEANS GOING TO THE "BIG PICTURE" TO
DEVELOP A TREND. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BEGINNING
THIS AFTN...CARRYING ASSOCIATED BOWLING BALL OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND N FL INTO SAT WHICH EVENTUALLY LINKS UP WITH DEEPER
AUTUMNAL TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE SE U.S. THIS ENERGY IMPULSE
FOCUSES IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS N
FL...SKEWING PCPN THREAT TO THE NATURE COAST AND POINTS N.
THE ETA MEANWHILE WANTS TO DEVELOP THE WEAKNESS NOW IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INTO A SUB-1010 HYBRID LOW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY
12Z SAT. AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE...IT STRENGTHENS E SFC WINDS OVER
THE PENINSULA WHILE THE GFS CARRIES SW FLOW. IN IT'S CASE...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/S
PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT.
SO...WHICH ROAD TO TAKE? NEITHER. THE BIG PICTURE SUPPORTS A
MODIFIED GFS SOLUTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND LOWERING 500 MB
HEIGHTS...SUPPORTING A BIT MORE SLOW/WEAKER SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE E GULF. FIRST LOOK AT CANADIAN ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...REMOVING THE
FEEDBACK.
.EXTENDED (SAT NIGHT-WED)...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU DURING
WEEKEND BRINGING TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. EXPECT ANY CHANCES
FOR RAIN TO BE SOUTH OF FORT MYERS AREA AS FRONT MAY STALL. KEPT
ISOLATED CHANCES THERE THRU WED. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD PUSH IN ON WED POSSIBLY BRINGING IN COLDEST LOWS OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT.
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ColdFront77
Tampa Bay Area (Ruskin, FL) NWS [excerpt] wrote:.EXTENDED (SAT NIGHT-WED)...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU DURING
WEEKEND BRINGING TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. EXPECT ANY CHANCES
FOR RAIN TO BE SOUTH OF FORT MYERS AREA AS FRONT MAY STALL. KEPT
ISOLATED CHANCES THERE THRU WED. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD PUSH IN ON WED POSSIBLY BRINGING IN COLDEST LOWS OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT.
Just in time for October.
Chad.....
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