Seems to be a lack of satellite coverage of this system. Nothing between 1915 UTC yesterday and 0915Z today. The first visible of the day seems to indicate a center further south and west than the official forecast states.
However, the official discussion by Stacey Stewart was also brutally honest which I appreciate:
Stewart in his 5:00 am Discussion wrote: THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION IS INDICATING...AND THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE MOVING MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK SINCE FIXING A POSITION IN NIGHTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ON POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST.
That continuity in what is distributed for public consumption and which will be repeated like a parrot by the media is:
5:00 am Public Advisory wrote:AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1310 MILES...2105 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
The above is what the media will tell the people on the news and say something like "Will pass well north of the islands" rather than also indicating the uncertainty. That is why people become so wary of forecasters and do not believe them.
That aside, I know that until more information becomes available and this thing develops a credible track, we ought to continue to monitor this one.
Renata
