11AM TROPICAL UPDATE

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hurricane Juan continues to organize and could strengthen further over the next day or two as it heads for Nova Scotia.

Enviornment Canada has issued a rain and wind warning for Nova Scotia and has issued hurricane force wind warnings for the Nova Scotia marina areas.

At 11 AM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Juan was located near latitude 35.3 north, longitude 63 west or about 645 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Juan is moving very little at this time. However a noerth northwest track is expected to resume later today. A gradual increase in forward speed is indicated thereafter. On this track, hurricane conditions will likely reach Nova Scotia late in the day Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now up to 85 mph with higher gusts. Further strengthening is a good possibility over the next 24-36 hours.

Minimum central pressure is 979 mb or 28.91 inches. Swells from Juan could reach the eastern US coast from Virginia northward into new England. Small craft advisories are likely to go up along the mid atlantic and northeast us coast this weekend courtesy of the swells from Juan. Otherwise no hurricane impacts on the northeast and mid atlantic. The mid atlantic especially doesn't need one at this point let alone just rainfall, which I'm afraid will be a problem later tonight.

Meanwhile TD#16 looks very poorly organized and is not forecast to strengthen anytime soon. At 11 AM EDT, the cneter of Tropical Depression sixteen was located near latitude 20.4 north, longitude 43.9 west or about 1200 miles east northeast of the Lesser Antillies.

The depression is moving toward the north northwest at 14 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. No change in strength is indicated for the next 24 hours. Little convection is showing up near the center of this depression. Any convection that is occurring is doing so east of the center while the center is exposed because of strong shear coming from the southwest. Whether this strengthens any or not, td16 will not affect any land areas.

Another area of interest is the western Caribbean where convection has flared up this morning. Any development will be slow if any. Heavy rains are likely late tonite or Sunday across the Yucatan pennisula including the Cancun area. Otherwise everywhere else is quiet today including the Gulf Of Mexico and the eastern seaboard outside the swells and a approaching strong cold front.

Jim

[Josephine96]

Thanks for the updates as always.. I do think the Caribbean system will form. Not sure if they'll find something when they send recon out.. But I believe we'll have a system in the Carribean soon..