TWO - 530 AM

[AussieMark]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280927
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JUAN...LOCATED ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM KATE...LOCATED ABOUT 1190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER.
EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT FORM...THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BRING HEAVY RAINS
TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

AN EASTWARD-MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...WIND
GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND HIGHER MAY OCCUR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART