Hurricane Kate, BOC disturbance and marine hazards.....

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening everyone. Kate is the sixth hurricane of the 2003 Atlantic Hurricane season and it surely looks like one of the sickest hurricanes I ever seen in my lifetime with the exposed center of circulation. Maximum sustained winds have increased to minimal hurricane force at 75 mph with higher gusts. Kate is only a hazard to marine and shipping interests.

At 11 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Kate was located about 655 miles southwest of Lajes in the Azores. If you're plotting at home, the coordinates are latitude 30.4 degrees north, longitude 35.0 degrees west.

Hurricane Kate is moving toward the northeast at near 16 mph. A reduction in forward speed and a turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours. Overtime, a turn towards the northwest is expected as a upper level low located west of the cyclone retrogrades to the southwest. The counterclockwise flow around the upper low will steer the hurricane towards the northwest overtime. In addition high pressure centered over the Azores will block any tropical entity from affecting the Azores, which is good news.

Maximum sustained winds are now up to 75 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. However if the shear of 40-50 mph continues over the system, it could just weaken once again. Definitely a sick looking hurricane on satellite imaginary tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward 25 miles from the center and tropical strom force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. Minimum central pressure is 987 mb or 29.15 inches, which is minimal hurricane criteria. Otherwise Kate most likely wouldn't have been classified a hurricane to begin with. Just an observation. I'm only the messenger here!!!

Elsewhere in the tropics, all is quiet in the Caribbean and the western Atlantic. No tropical formation is expected in these areas. The broad low pressure area has emerged into the Bay Of Campeche after tracking over the Yucatan Pennisula earlier today. Development from this is very unlikely at this point. But we'll monitor it just in case. It certainly doesn't look good for development given the lack of convection around this low pressure system. However with southerly winds east of the low interacting with a stalled out front in Florida, rainfall amounts are very impressive. Check this out, Naples had 6.35 inches of rain today. That's a new daily record. Fort Myers, Florida set their all time record for wettest September ever at 17.24 inches. That is a monthly record in Fort Myers ladies and gentlemen and the problem is this pattern is gonna persist for another day or two unfortunately. Until a disturbance drives this stationary front south of Florida late Thursday, flooding rains continue to be a threat. Many homes and businesses are under water tonight in the Naples area. Do not drive through water covered roads.

If that wasn't enough, there's another problem to talk about tonight and that's coastal flooding in south Texas.
The combination of this tropical low over the Bay Of Campeche and a strong high pressure ridge extending down into Texas is causing a pressure gradient and a persistent northeasterly fetch into the south Texas coast. As a result, coastal flood warnings are in effect for the south Texas coast from Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. A heavy surf advisory has also been issued for the same location and the warnings/advisories last into Thursday.

Northeast winds of 20-25 knots and seas of 8-9 feet have been observed in the coastal flood warning areas. In addition, tidal highs near 2.1 feet are expected through Thursday. This comibnation of high tide and significant offshore swell activity will produce coastal erosion similar to that of Hurricane Claudette before she made landfall on the south central Texas coast on July 15th.

A coastal flood warning means that coastal flooding is immient and is occurring or is expected to occur within the next 12 hours. People in the warning area from Baffin Bay to the US/MX border are urged to take immediate action along the south Texas coast to protect life and property.

In addition be careful for dangerous rip currents along the southern Texas coast through Thursday. Rip currents are narrow but swift currents of water returning offshore from the beach. They can tire and drown even the strongest swimmers. It is strongly recommended that no one ventures into the surf zone until this event has subsided. If caught in a rip current though, swim parallel to the beach until you get out of the rip current, then swim towards shore. Don't swim towards shore while in the rip current itself as it could tire you out. A small craft advisory is also in effect for the southern Texas coast as well. A busy night tonight and a busy day tomorrow both tropically and marine wise as dangerous situations are occurring at this time. Another update will be done later this morning. Good evening and night!!

Jim

[ColdFront77]

The forecast has been calling for the stationary front across south-central Florida
to begin moving northward into central Florida before washing out later this week.