5:30 two=Losing front caracteristics and better organized

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... wt20us.htm

Larry by tonight or tommorow they say in the outlook.

[WeatherEmperor]

Guess we wont have Larry at 5pm afterall. Maybe at 11pm

[Josephine96]

Maybe @ 11 Emperor.. We just gotta watch which way he goes..

[wxman57]

I've been doing some thinking, perhaps way too deeply, but hear me out.

This storm clearly has TS-force winds now, as it has for 24-36 hours. But it remains attached to that cold front. The frontal boundary is weakening, but there is another reinforcing shot of cool air slipping south into the NW Gulf tonight and Thursday.

Now, the NHC is in a quandry. Name it Larry or say it's associated with the front and not purely tropical and also not qualifying to be a subtropical storm. What do they do?

From what we can see the two "tropical" models that we can see online, the "statistical-dynamical" BAMM/BAMD do indicate an eventual NE-ENE movement. But these models models are not generally very good in the subtropics where fronts are involved. The vast majority of purely dynamical models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and even the GFDL tropical model) are indicating a west or south to southwest motion into Mexico this weekend. Now the NHC also looks at other in-house models that we cannot see.

Ok, here's where my mind started churning ... what if?

Let's say for the sake of argument, that all these in-house models (which performed very well with Isabel) are actually indicating that the storm will be picked up by the front and carried to Florida over the weekend. Would the NHC be MORE inclined or LESS inclined to name it earlier (i.e., now)? Looking at it another way, let's say that the only 2 models forecasting an eventual ENE-NE movement are BAMD and BAMM, and SHIPS/DSHPS are indicating TD to weak TS-force winds. Most of the models indicate the storm center will track west into Mexico and not affect the U.S. Would the NHC then be LESS inclined to give it a name now?

I just wonder what's going on inside their heads over at the NHC. I really think that if the NHC saw that most of the reliable model data were indicating that the front would pick it up and drive it to Florida as a TS on Sunday that they would have been more inclined to upgrade it at the 4pm advisory this afternoon (which they didn't).

Therefore, I conclude that the NHC figures that the storm will eventually go into Mexico and never affect the U.S. As such, they are in not hurry to call it "Larry", though they probably will upgrade it to "Larry" on Thursday.

Ok, after climbing around in the heads of the NHC forecasters, I need to go home and take a shower...

[cycloneye]

Great anaylisis 57 about all what is going on in that complex system and what may happen.I second you that they will upgrade it to Larry eventually but the question is will it meaender for some days without entering old Mexico and then the pattern changes and then Florida may get it?

[Rainband]

I've been doing some thinking, perhaps way too deeply, but hear me out.

This storm clearly has TS-force winds now, as it has for 24-36 hours. But it remains attached to that cold front. The frontal boundary is weakening, but there is another reinforcing shot of cool air slipping south into the NW Gulf tonight and Thursday.

Now, the NHC is in a quandry. Name it Larry or say it's associated with the front and not purely tropical and also not qualifying to be a subtropical storm. What do they do?

From what we can see the two "tropical" models that we can see online, the "statistical-dynamical" BAMM/BAMD do indicate an eventual NE-ENE movement. But these models models are not generally very good in the subtropics where fronts are involved. The vast majority of purely dynamical models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and even the GFDL tropical model) are indicating a west or south to southwest motion into Mexico this weekend. Now the NHC also looks at other in-house models that we cannot see.

Ok, here's where my mind started churning ... what if?

Let's say for the sake of argument, that all these in-house models (which performed very well with Isabel) are actually indicating that the storm will be picked up by the front and carried to Florida over the weekend. Would the NHC be MORE inclined or LESS inclined to name it earlier (i.e., now)? Looking at it another way, let's say that the only 2 models forecasting an eventual ENE-NE movement are BAMD and BAMM, and SHIPS/DSHPS are indicating TD to weak TS-force winds. Most of the models indicate the storm center will track west into Mexico and not affect the U.S. Would the NHC then be LESS inclined to give it a name now?

I just wonder what's going on inside their heads over at the NHC. I really think that if the NHC saw that most of the reliable model data were indicating that the front would pick it up and drive it to Florida as a TS on Sunday that they would have been more inclined to upgrade it at the 4pm advisory this afternoon (which they didn't).

Therefore, I conclude that the NHC figures that the storm will eventually go into Mexico and never affect the U.S. As such, they are in not hurry to call it "Larry", though they probably will upgrade it to "Larry" on Thursday.

Ok, after climbing around in the heads of the NHC forecasters, I need to go home and take a shower...

I guess the upgrade speaks for itself :o