Larry should make the connection with the next trough

[John]

Recon found 64KTS over the Northeast quadrant several hours ago, the presentation on satellite imagery continues to look more impressive. latest Satellite derived intensity should be closer to the 64kts found and estimates on the Dvorak scale could be closer to 3.5, I.E. 65kts. There is excellent upper level outflow and the water remains warm for now, Larry is likely to continue to intensify into a Hurricane sooner rather than later. However increasing upper level winds may limit intensification later. As I mentioned last night Im still not totally convinced with a Westward movement, in fact if anything Larry has Drifted Northward a bit. This is going to become a forecasters nightmare, I believe a retrogression of the mid Tropospheric Ridge over the South-central states with a weakness extending Northeastward from the Southwest Gulf to a developing trough over the Eastern United States complicates the track forecast and leaves open the possibility that Larry could remain over the Southwest Gulf for the next two days. Thereafter a new Midlatitude trough which is currently over Northwestern North America should drop into the Midwest. This should Produce a Southwesterly steering flow for Larry, the million dollar question is will the trough and Larry make the connection, I think it will, there are already indications that this next trough is going to dig further South than earlier expected and should approach the Gulf before Larry is inland Mexico, The next question is the hostile environment to Larry's north should he head toward the East, again should Larry head NE he will surly feel the shear no doubt, however unlike other systems Larry will be heading in the same direction as the shear, thus we could see a system accelerating in the flow not against it. should this end up the case than Id expect to see an exposed center chasing it's convection displaced to the East, depending on how much acceleration takes place will depend on how much of Larry is intact before reaching land. This is not over by a long shot, and anybody that just writes the Idea off may end up with a Trick and no Treat.
John

[Rainband]

Interesting prospect..one thing we know for sure the tropics throws us curve balls all the time..will this be the case with Larry ??? Time will tell

[WeatherEmperor]

Dont think so. Did you read the 5pm NHC discussion? If not I suggest you do so.

[Steve H.]

It's awful hard to figure the center given the CLouds moving and mucking about, but NHC says its drifting south right now. ETA seems to be losing the storm into Mexico now, though I didn't have the entire run. Then again its the ETA in the tropics. Don't know if it figured in intensity. Still up in the air, and we can come back in 3 days and see a similar picture.

[Steve]

>>Dont think so. Did you read the 5pm NHC discussion? If not I suggest you do so.

Wait a minute here. He's supposed to read that and accept it as gospel truth, or should he be participating in a thread furthering an opinion he had last night?

Steve

[JetMaxx]

Larry is likely going to become a minimal hurricane, drift south to SSW and die over Mexico....which is what normally happens to tropical storms and hurricanes trapped in the Bay of Campeche in October and November.

The only question in my mind is whether Larry will make it into the EPAC and regenerate into a tropical storm there.....there is now absolutely no chance this storm will ever threaten the U.S......I'll stake my reputation on it.

[Steve]

>>The only question in my mind is whether Larry will make it into the EPAC and regenerate into a tropical storm there.....there is now absolutely no chance this storm will ever threaten the U.S......I'll stake my reputation on it.

That's pretty heavy-duty. I haven't come out one way or another yet because I'm not sure if he's going to head off NE, stall and burn or head into Mexico. And I'm one who will often make a call several days out. I'm just too conflicted with Larry to come up with anything convincing except the certainty that he doesn't affect my area, which he won't (outside of potential wind/gradient issues).

So what's your reputation worth? Will you retire your alias and come back as a new poster or what? I wanna know.

Steve

[Rainband]

there is now absolutely no chance this storm will ever threaten the U.S......I'll stake my reputation on it.

WOW!!! Perry this is the tropics ...and they can be unpredictable but after that comment I will go with you and Luis.. Larry will take a siesta in Mexico I hope

[JetMaxx]

So what's your reputation worth? Will you retire your alias and come back as a new poster or what? I wanna know.

Steve

I'll never post on ANY internet weather forum again....UNDER ANY NAME. These forums all know my IP number, and it's shown on every post I've made at Wright-Weather.com. With Webtv, it doesn't change either (is the same was it was in 2000 except for the last three digits).

I'm that certain that the LBAR (a worthless track model north of 18 N), JB, and John are wrong.

[Stormcenter]

Well JetMaxx I guess we won't want to be reading your posts on here
anymore after Sunday. I think you have just lost your reputation on this board by making such a bold statement. I THINK Larry will be headed NE by Sunday. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I hope for your reputation he doesn't.

[JetMaxx]

Talk is cheap my Texas friend....let's just sit back and see who's right..

btw - Do any of you naysayers care to make the same promise I just did...IF Larry does as you believe (slingshots and strikes the U.S??). Are you willing to leave the internet wx forums if you are wrong???

Well I am that confident that Larry is no U.S. threat.

[Anonymous]

there is now absolutely no chance this storm will ever threaten the U.S......I'll stake my reputation on it.

A very bold statement Jet Peep, but pretty safe considering the odds are with you. However, Larry better hurry up its trek south or a front will scoop it up and your weather posting days will be history.

[Anonymous]

Talk is cheap my Texas friend....let's just sit back and see who's right..

btw - Do any of you naysayers care to make the same promise I just did...IF Larry does as you believe (slingshots and strikes the U.S??). Are you willing to leave the internet wx forums if you are wrong???

Well I am that confident that Larry is no U.S. threat.

No, I'm not willing to risk anything.

[Rainband]

Talk is cheap my Texas friend....let's just sit back and see who's right..

btw - Do any of you naysayers care to make the same promise I just did...IF Larry does as you believe (slingshots and strikes the U.S??). Are you willing to leave the internet wx forums if you are wrong???

Well I am that confident that Larry is no U.S. threat.

Being a logical person..not saying your not Perry..my friend But I just wait and see what happens. the end justifies the means. I just know weather has a way of surprising us all. I understand you have alot of knowledge under your belt and I trust and respect you. That being said, Mother nature is something I won't bet on. Granted I think the Mexico scenario is the most Plausible At the moment and I wouldn't be shocked to see this occur. I just think we are all here to have fun and learn. Even if this storm doesn't go into Mexico.. I hardly think you should leave the internet forums. You have alot of valuable Information and I enjoy reading your post!!

[Stormcenter]

JetMaxx I'd be a little worried right now because looks like he's not moving south right now. But hey you could always come back under another screen name. I personally DON'T make bold statements like that because I know better. I guess you MAY have to learn the hard way.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

I second rainband on that statement that Perry will not leave because he is a valuable person who brings the historic prospective of the hurricanes and past seasons.

[Rainband]

perry rocks

I second rainband on that statement that Perry will not leave because he is a valuable person who brings the historic prospective of the hurricanes and past seasons.

Perry Rocks

[Derecho]

JetMaxx I'd be a little worried right now because looks like he's not moving south right now.

A persistent perception problem that is worse now that we have 5 day forecasts, is the NHC forecasting a storm to do something 3-4 days down the road, but then people panicking when the storm isn't doing that "something" 5 MINUTES after the NHC advisory.

We've seen this previously with a storm moving West, that the NHC forecasts to turn NW in three days, and within a DAY you see all the "ITS NOT TURNING!" "WHERE IS THE TURN?!?!?!" posts, as if people expected to see an instant Starsky-and-Hutch tire squealing sharp right turn.

The NHC forecast track really has barely ANY movement at all for the next TWO days.

Within the next two days, given the diffuseness of the inner core, expect to see a variety of center relocations, brief movements in various directions, etc.

[Steve]

Pretty sweet JetMaxx. That's putting your $ where your mouth is. If I had any say, a "damn, I was wrong' post and maybe self-banishment for a week or something would be more appropriate.

Steve

[stu]

Wow that is taking up the challange! I jumped in on another board and stated a NE Florida landfall.

Of course I now realise that the system is not going any where for a few days a least !

so North East, South West, Fizzle out in place. I bet that there is some head scratching going on over this one!