NONAME !!!!

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:08 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Well officially we have td#19.

stormchazer · #2 Postby **stormchazer** » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:31 pm

I'm glad they decided to tell us what we already had determined.

Steve H. · #3 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:41 pm

Yeah its NONAME, but I'm not overly impressed with its circulation right now. Looked better earlier this morning IMO. One factor that may impact its development is an area of disturbed weather right behind it which seems to be a low in and of itself. Will out TD #19 subsume it or not. If the TD is moving 8 mph, that's probably generous. that being said if it develops a good circulation over time, it SHOULD stay at a fairly low latitude, though the 12Z models (GFS/NOGAPS) take it north/norhteast respectively. Not sure I buy that yet, but it almost appears that its going backwards (maybe due to the proximity of the feature behind it. We'll see. The SW Caribbean exploded with convection this afternoon, and its quite possible a low is forming there. As I said earlier the energy seems split, with a piece destined for the EPAC and one for the Gulf of Honduras. The12Z NOGAPS has it almost exactly split now, as opposed to the 0Z run which took it into the EPAC. This low could have a surprise up its sleeve, and may take the lion's share of the energy into the Gulf of Honduras. Another 'we'll see', but certainly closer to home. The earlier TWD had it moving west, but its apparent that convection has shifted further north. :wink:

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:47 pm

The Caribbean is definitely the area to watch this time of year. :wink:

NONAME !!!!

NONAME !!!!

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