TD 19 A HURRICANE IN 2 DAYS SAYS GFDL & SHIPS AT 11 P.M.

[dixiebreeze]

Advisory:

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 13, 2003



neither infrared nor microwave imagery depicts a clear center
position this evening...while a Quikscat pass at 21z suggests a
broad and east-west-elongated circulation. The initial position
and motion are largely based on continuity from the previous
advisory. There has been no appreciable improvement in
organization...as the center remains west of the deep convection.
However...the Quikscat pass suggests that the maximum winds could
be as high as 30 kt. With consensus Dvorak estimates of 30 kt as
well...that will be the advisory intensity.
The 18z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS suggest that the depression will
not make much westward progress. There is currently a break in the
subtropical ridge north of the cyclone...and this weakness will be
reinforced by an upper level trough near 45 degrees west that is
digging southeastward. The Canadian model allows the depression to
escape this weakness and get farther west...but this model is
already too far west with the system. The official forecast has
been adjusted to the right of the previous advisory...but still
shows more westward motion than either the GFS...UKMET...or NOGAPS
models. The official forecast is in reasonable agreement with the
GFDL model...which recurves the system near 45w.
Both the GFDL and SHIPS models forecast the depression to reach
hurricane strength in about 2 days. However...water vapor imagery
continues to suggest that southerly shear will be an issue for
intensification. Given this and the poor current organization of
the cyclone...the official forecast is less aggressive.

Forecaster Franklin

[cycloneye]

But no threat to the islands as it will take the turn to the north as a big trough will deviate it as the track shows from them and they are not going after the GFDL nor ships and are less agressive in intensity.

[dixiebreeze]

That's true, Luis, but didn't you say earlier in a post that the NHC had initialized the system too far north, thus making it more unlikely to turn NW so early? Perhaps I misinterpreted what you said.