Nicholas & Family - A Trio Using McIDAS

[wxman57]

Interesting shot of Nick, 94L to the east, and a vortex developing southwest of Nick at the trailing end of Nick's feeder band. Note that the CDO collapse has ended, and we now have a new build-up of squalls just north of Nick's center. 94L appears to have a bit of convection on its eastern flank, but tremendous wind shear is ripping it apart. I'm not sure if the circulation southwest of Nick is at the surface, but kind of looks like it.

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/eatl.gif">

[Lowpressure]

Just posted myself regarding recent explosion near the center of Nick.

[Weathermaster]

WXMAN57:

Could you post the address where you find those satellite pictures with the gridlines of each lat. and long.?

They are very cool.

Thanks

[wxman57]

WXMAN57:

Could you post the address where you find those satellite pictures with the gridlines of each lat. and long.?

They are very cool.

Thanks

Sorry, I make them myself at work. The one above I used McIDAS to construct. I "vi" a script, set the lat/lon, band (vis/IR/etc), zoom level, mapping, then run it as a batch file on my unix workstation. The other images I've posted today are using GEMPAK (GARP). We can overlay lat/lon using GARP as well. Just one more reason why I love my job!

[Aquawind]

Well the qscat doesn't show a defined surface circulation but on the 2km Barbados visable loop it's pretty obvious a surface circulation exits. Hopefully the next pass of qscat gets it covered.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/COS.html

[wxman57]

Just looking at a WV loop of the trio, and I see tremendous SSW-SW shear across the little vortex southwest of Nick. I don't think there is anything at the surface. Out east, there is tremdous NW shear across 94L. So development of either system is unlikely.

[Valkhorn]

I disagree, wxman, I think the center is definately at the surface since it only shows up on visible imagery and since it has been a low level center a day or two ago for a brief period of time (the reason for the invest).

I think the next qscat pass will show it if and only if the swirl persists which I think it could very well do so.

It'll only develop if it has convection around it, which since Nick is so close by it may be hard to get if at all.

[ncweatherwizard]

I disagree, wxman, I think the center is definately at the surface since it only shows up on visible imagery and since it has been a low level center a day or two ago for a brief period of time (the reason for the invest).

He is referring to the little vertex on the southwest side of Nicholas, from an elongated band extending from the storm, not 94L.

[wxman57]

I disagree, wxman, I think the center is definately at the surface since it only shows up on visible imagery and since it has been a low level center a day or two ago for a brief period of time (the reason for the invest).

He is referring to the little vertex on the southwest side of Nicholas, from an elongated band extending from the storm, not 94L.

Correct.

[Valkhorn]

Nope I'm referring to 94L itself. Note on the last few vis shots it was also moving west southwest, and the low level swirl is starting to show up on infared.

[Stormsfury]

Nope I'm referring to 94L itself. Note on the last few vis shots it was also moving west southwest, and the low level swirl is starting to show up on infared.

There's no doubt that 94L has a low level swirl. It's the twist SOUTHWEST of Nicklaus in that shot.

SF

[OtherHD]

Nicklaus? :?

[Valkhorn]

Then why is the swirl to the east of Nick the only one mentioned on the 5:30 TWO?

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ROUGHLY HALFWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS...IS GENERATING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT IS
PRODUCING WINDS OF 25-30 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Seems like people are confused on where 94L is, and it's pretty obvious to the casual observer where it is.

[Valkhorn]

By the way, I said it was moving southwest, not that it was to the southwest.

[bahamaswx]

I think you're confused.

EDIT: sorry, I didn't read it all.

[wxman57]

By the way, I said it was moving southwest, not that it was to the southwest.

Valkorn, I was saying that the tiny mid-level swirl southwest of Nicholas appeared to have no LLC. 94L certainly has a very well-defined LLC.

[Stormsfury]

By the way, I said it was moving southwest, not that it was to the southwest.

We KNOW where 94L is .. it's east of Nicklaus ...

Once again, wxman57 was referring to another swirl along a band SW of Nicklaus... Look again at 10ºN, 56ºW and that's the other swirl which is getting eaten by shear. 94L is also experiencing quite a bit of shear as well (which he also mentioned). IF the shear becomes quite divergent over 94L, then there's a possibility that a TC could be declared but I don't expect a lot of fanfare with 94L until it does the following

1) Separates itself away from Nicklaus and away from Nicklaus's outflow.
2) 94L decides to dive southwest into a little less hostile area ... and that COULD happen. However, if 94L begins to develop in this scenario, the Fujiwhara Effect would likely begin to take hold on BOTH systems, and we would see a crazy pinwheel effect take place. The movement of 94L would likely come to a dead stop and start to be shunted northward. Meanwhile, Nicklaus would nudge LEFT and if enough of an influence could be imparted from 94L, a brief south of due west... that is if 94L could even impart any force on Nicklaus which is clearly the larger of the two circulations.

The most likely scenario at this time is that Nicklaus may eventually absorb 94L with such a close proximaty to it as 94L continues to draw closer to Nicklaus. This scenario was depicted on several runs of the EURO in the past few days as Nicklaus sorta just decides to meander and 94L gets eventually drawn on the eastern and eventually northeastern side of Nicklaus and gets sheared apart by an inflow jet around Nicklaus.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Aquawind]

94L is east of Nick.. the swirl SW of Nick on the trio map was not mentioned in the AM TWD..at any level.. none the less it has a spin/swirl to it. 94L has a long ways to go..

[Valkhorn]

Nevertheless, it has a LLC which for most formative systems is usually a later sign of development.

All it needs now is convection and it will be a depression.

[ChaserUK]

94L will be born soon....