W. Carribean development more "likely"

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Vortex
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W. Carribean development more "likely"

#1 Postby Vortex » Mon Oct 20, 2003 6:21 pm

It appears we have low pressure developing near 12/13N and 81/82W. This system will be slow to organize but if it can sit down there the next 3-5 days south of 15/16N it has potential. The models nogaps/ukmet stronger,slower in movement and furthur west whereas the Gfs takes it NE into the bahamas in 3-4 days. For now something to watch and really any scenario is possible but the longer it remains tucked down there the better chance of a Nogaps/ukmet solution.
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#2 Postby btangy » Mon Oct 20, 2003 7:01 pm

Broad cyclonic rotation seen in satellite. 12Z NOGAPS spins up something pretty rapidly, but it looks like it didn't initialize well.
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#3 Postby Steve H. » Tue Oct 21, 2003 6:48 am

Hey Vortex, would you be so kind as to let us know what the new UKMET shows. All the runs I see out there are old (0Z Monday :roll: ). Thanks in advance. Seems the pattern is a good setup for the western caribbean this morning; All we need is some development :(
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