FROM ACCUWEATHER!! WOW

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
rainstorm

FROM ACCUWEATHER!! WOW

#1 Postby rainstorm » Wed Oct 29, 2003 6:01 pm

The remnants of what was once Nicholas have merged with an area of low pressure, located about 300 miles southwest of Bermuda. Given the very warm water and the tremendous ridge building over the western Atlantic, not only will this system move westward over the next few days, but strengthening is possible. We expect this system to reach the Florida Keys sometime Sunday. At the very least, it will cause some rough surf as well as showers and thunderstorms for South Florida. In the extreme case, we could end up with something similar to mid-November 1985 -- Kate came out of a similar situation. We are well past the peak of the hurricane season, but this system bears watching, given the current weather pattern. Elsewhere, we have a tropical wave along 32 west, south of 22 north; strong convection to the east of it. Another wave is in the Caribbean, along 80 west, south of 19 north.
0 likes   
Top
ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Oct 29, 2003 7:00 pm

Southern, central and even northern Florida should monitor this system.

Miami's latitude is 25.8°N.
Orlando's latitude is 28.5°N.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Carbondale, Pennsylvania

A longshot

#3 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Oct 29, 2003 7:11 pm

Given the scenario in place now I would think some slow tropical development may indeed occur, but climatology is against it. I think the trough off the EC may lift out and leave that system either just sitting there or drifting slowly west. Could get interesting. We shall see.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Oct 29, 2003 7:51 pm

Seems too wild, BUT --- it's been a busy and crazy season, so who knows? Can't say some development would surprise me.
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2149
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#5 Postby Steve H. » Wed Oct 29, 2003 9:40 pm

That ridge is forecast to be rather strong, and in the position of a Bermuda high. Its strength will determine where our tropical system will go. Some model runs lift the ridge further to the north than others, so the next couple of days'model runs will tell the tale. BTW, I expect this system (whatever it is) to reach 85W. How it gets there is debatable.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Carbondale, Pennsylvania

#6 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Oct 29, 2003 9:41 pm

Steve I agree it will reach 85W..it will likely need to be that far west in order to develop.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GulfBreezer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2230
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 8:58 pm
Location: Gulf Breeze Fl
Contact:
Contact GulfBreezer

#7 Postby GulfBreezer » Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:23 am

WOW, this has indeed been a season of surprises and records.........let's see what the end of the 2003 season brings. We may be talking about this one for years to come..........
0 likes   
Top
ColdFront77

#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Thu Oct 30, 2003 4:21 pm

Most if not the majority of tropical systems in November have made landfall along the Florida coast.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormchazer

#9 Postby stormchazer » Thu Oct 30, 2003 4:37 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Most if not the majority of tropical system in November have made landfall along the Florida coast.


That just means we are due for the unusual. :)
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, duilaslol, islandgirl45, Jr0d, Killjoy12, Kingarabian, sasha_B, Sps123, TheBurn, TomballEd and 154 guests