Models

[Steve H.]

In the Tropical suite, BAMMs take this thing to N/C Florida and A98 and LBAR to the east/SE ; CMC splits the energy 3 ways, left, center and right; 12Z NOGAPS wants to bring the main energy to the NE still. The GFS and ETA take it towards south Florida and into the GOM. Now at this point I'm not concerned about strength of the system, but where the low will go. I don't believe the models have a handle on strength that's of any value yet. Probably don't have a great handle on where its going either. Have a good feeling that its now captured under the ridge though, even if there was the appearance of a SE movement. The overall broad low has been drifting south and should begin a southwest motion during the next 24 hours.

[Anonymous]

Tropical models aren't useful with such a low...with such global model agreement it is rather likely that it will cross southern Florida.

[ColdFront77]

No matter what the overall westward movement of this system is, it will get into the Gulf of Mexico once crossing over the 82°N line in the southern Florida area and 83°N northward to the panhandle.