CMC Ensembles ... interesting enough for a looksee ...

[Stormsfury]

Interesting run from the CMC Ensemble Members for Halloween Day.

Basically speaking ... there appears to be two main features in the next 10 days. Obviously, with the talk of ex-Nicholas in conjuction with another low pressure system, which might bring on subtropical characteristics in the next couple of days. Interestingly enough, the CMC ensembles proclaim profoundly that this complex low pressure structure isn't a big deal ...

However, there are some areas of interest, and one of the CMC ensemble members has a downright extreme picture but notice in the loop the ORIGIN of NOT ONE, BUT TWO SUBSTANTIAL STORMS ... (CMC4). The CMC4 brings BOTH large systems from the Caribbean. (If you look closely at the loop, the remnants of Nicholas sweep across Southern Florida and weaken but in its wake a substantial storm moves NW into the Eastern GOM and swings rapidly west with another brewing right behind it. It is an extreme run and highly considered an outlier. Most of the other members do NOT have this scenario, but one thing remains consistent through all 16 of the CMC ENS run ... two features to watch though the individual results are different.

View the CMC Ensemble loop below (total 10 frame file size is 2 MB)
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoo ... mbles.html

[ameriwx2003]

SF.. thanks for the loop. Yes that one panel is really extreme. One thing I do think is our system near Bermuda won't make it to Louisiana but will recurve earlier, I will say Alabama to the FL Panhandle. We will see :):)

[Stormsfury]

SF.. thanks for the loop. Yes that one panel is really extreme. One thing I do think is our system near Bermuda won't make it to Louisiana but will recurve earlier, I will say Alabama to the FL Panhandle. We will see :):)

CMC1 kinda shows that scenario also ... really depends on two things ...

1) How much convection develops around the system
2) How shallow or deep layered the system eventually tries to become.

A shallow system would likely stay further south (more like the EURO's solution last night. A deeper layered system would likely recurve sooner.

SF

[ColdFront77]

SF.. thanks for the loop. Yes that one panel is really extreme. One thing I do think is our system near Bermuda won't make it to Louisiana but will recurve earlier, I will say Alabama to the FL Panhandle. We will see :):)

The surface cold front moving toward (but not expected to move into the southeastern United States) could very well move this system northward before it "gets too far" into the Gulf of Mexico.