SE coast not in the running?

skufful · #1 Postby **skufful** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 9:56 pm

New member to this site, from Beaufort, SC. Some models are taking Nick into SE coast (WREL for example), why is there no disscussion regarding this here. We have been very lucky for a long time (1979 David) (Hugo was north of us) Everbody is talking FL, GOM...why?

#2 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 9:58 pm

Welcome to Storm2k! Actually, we've all been discussing this for several days.

stormchazer · #3 Postby **stormchazer** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:00 pm

Global models have not depicted this I don't think. That has been the main reason besides it defies climatology. Not outside realm though I guess.

skufful · #4 Postby **skufful** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:02 pm

Actually, I am excluding South FL, as the tropical models are taking it to SC/NC.

i.e. BAMD BAMM NCAPBE LBAR although UKMET takes a southerly route

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:11 pm

skufful wrote:Actually, I am excluding South FL, as the tropical models are taking it to SC/NC.

i.e. BAMD BAMM NCAPBE LBAR although UKMET takes a southerly route

The tropical models are basically useless with this system .. and the globals are the best bet since primarily it's a subtropical class storm ... the embedded environment is cyclonic in the upper-levels, not anticyclonic ...

Plus the upper high extends from the GOM NEward into the North Atlantic ... thus forcing the system to move SWward.

LBAR is useless outside of the deep tropics, A98E is a climatology model (50% climatology) and is also useless ... BAMD, and BAMM won't do very well with this system either ... BAMM is useless since the system isn't shallow and BAMD won't do very well since it's misreading the environment. Gotta use the globals for this one ....

SF

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:11 pm

Those models are useless since we're dealing with a lot of baroclinic features. The global models can handle these features much better and have been doing an excellent job so far.

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:13 pm

lol good post SF.

skufful · #8 Postby **skufful** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:14 pm

Well, I will watch and learn from y'all. Thank you for your kind welcoming.

TCW

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:15 pm

I still say Florida than the Gulf.. If the Atlantic coast gets anything.. It'll be the remnants when it's in the region..

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:21 pm

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:lol good post SF.

Great minds think alike ...

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:24 pm

The WV loop kinda spells it out a bit as well ...

Notice the strong NNE upper wind flow over South Carolina as well ...and also notice the general overall flattening of the system as another ridge builds in the North Atlantic further suppressing the system ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#12 Postby **Steve** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:38 pm

You guys in SC got a little action from TD #7 this year, right? There sure haven't been many coastal states in 2003 that missed out on a taste of the tropics.

Steve

Stormsfury · #13 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:42 pm

Steve wrote:You guys in SC got a little action from TD #7 this year, right? There sure haven't been many coastal states in 2003 that missed out on a taste of the tropics.

Steve

In Charleston, we got an impressive squall line that generated from the mid-level center with a lot of CG and heavy rain, but very little in the way of wind ... barely 15 mph even during the thunderstorms ... the winds did increase to 20 mph along the coast later (while I was at work) around noon, but basically, not much fanfare ... (which wasn't necessarily a bad thing)

SF

SE coast not in the running?

SE coast not in the running?

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