NWS MIAMI TODAY: INVEST/LOW INTO THE GOM.....

[dixiebreeze]

by mid-Monday and then moving back NE:

South Florida area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
235 PM EST sun Nov 2 2003


Discussion...
surface low currently southwest of Bermuda will continue to track
toward South Florida. GFS seems to have a good handle on the
situation. As this low approaches showers will be on the increase
over the Atlantic and east coast later today and will become
numerous tonight. Instability will be sufficient to keep in the
mention of thunder. The low will be just about west of mia by 12z
Monday. The GFS has been consistent with this movement. Will likely
see a decrease in activity from east to west during the day Monday
as it continues moving westward. It will then move into the Gulf of
Mexico by midday Monday along with drier air temporarily. The GFS
shows the upper level low that is associated with the lower level
low begin to move back eastward later Tuesday and Tuesday night. It nevers
gets west of 90w. The low level low moves into southeast Louisiana
and southern Mississippi and weakens Wednesday. In the meantime...deep
moisture will return for Tuesday and Wednesday and have upped the probability of precipitation to
scattered. The mrh's decrease on Thursday so will be back to slight chance
probability of precipitation by the later part of the week.


Marine...
current winds northeast roughly in the range of 20 to 25 knots with
gusts to near 30 knots. As low approaches...winds will be on the
increase today. GFS shows 30 knot winds across the northern portion
of our atlatic waters so will keep the mention of 25 to 30 knots over
the Atlantic waters and 20 to 25 knots for the Bay and Gulf waters.
Any gale force gusts should remain over the extreme northern
Atlantic coastal waters east of Palm Beach. Will issue a high surf
advisory for the Atlantic coast of Palm Beach County for this
afternoon. As the low moves into the Gulf of Mexico...winds will
become more southeasterly and decrease along with seas through
midweek.