The CMC continues to advertise a system down in the Caribbean ... however, robust development occurs after the main vorticity signature passes north of Puerto Rico ... and part of this could be aided with the ULL now moving slowly through the Caribbean ...
Notice the beginning of the deepening after PR. 12z CMC loop
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation
925 mb Vorticity
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation
A good many of the CMC ensemble members continue to show some form of an entity ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html
The 12z GFS also now denoting a low pressure north of PR at 120 hours...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120m.gif
CMC still very bullish with development ...
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Stormsfury
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Stormsfury
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Also ... the 12z GGEM is very robust in developing quite a winter system with remarkably cold air behind the storm system ... part of this solution may be coming from the phasing/absorption of the tropical entity that the CMC is quite aggressive with ...
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif
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