Tropical Cyclone 02S "Beni" moving westward...

[Typhoon_Willie]

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 11.4S6 74.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 74.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 11.4S6 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 11.3S5 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 11.3S5 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 11.0S2 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 73.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181730Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POLEWARD
OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD, WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SOME VENTILATION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//

Lets see if this system starts to close in on Madagascar in the near future.