The SOI numbers remain positive for the time being. In fact, good ole JB says the SOI should remain positive and more so over the short term.
One has to wonder if the SOI remains positive for 90 or more days, then perhaps we will see more of a La Nina then El Nino next year.
I do not know much about how the SOI works or swings from season to season. But as long as it remains positive, I would assume that any significant El Nino will be held at bay.
Here is the link to the SOI page:
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... estSOI1887
We shall see...
SOI positive for a while
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SOI positive for a while
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