TCFA...South Pacific

[Typhoon_Willie]

Possible Tropical Cyclone developing near Western Samoa!

WTPS21 PGTW 301900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 301851Z DEC 03//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S2 178.8W4 TO 10.7S8
173.7W8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MET­
SAT IMAGERY AT 301130Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 178.0W6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6
178.5W1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 178.0W6, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 301323Z2 AMSRE PASS
DEPICTS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED 60 NM FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311900Z4.//