Tropical Update: 27 Feb

[senorpepr]

Note, over the course of the day, Invest 97S has dropped off the scope…

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 27/1649Z...
Position near 24.3S 170.7E (220nm SSE of Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Movement toward the S at 14 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph
Minimum central pressure is 944 mb
T# numbers: 5.5/5.5

Ivy is starting to be effect by cooler waters, decreased outflow, and increased shear as it becomes extratropical.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

B) TC Monty (14S): At 27/1649Z...
Position near 19.4S 118.6E (100nm NE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph
Minimum central pressure is 987 mb
T# numbers: 2.5/2.5

Invest 98S has developed into TC Monty as convection around the low-level circulation increases. Nonetheless, moderate diffluence aloft and shear and favorable outflow exist. Regardless, expect slight strengthening during the next day in a half, followed by weakening associated with cooler waters.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 404web.txt

C) Invest (99S): At 27/1649Z...
Position near 15.7S 133.0E
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph

99S has just arrived on the NRL’s webpage. Furthermore, the ABIO outlook does not mention 99S yet, mainly due to it being inland. The Bureau of Meteorology out of Darwin, Australia, mentions a low potential for development on Saturday with a moderate risk for both Sunday and Monday. In any event, we’ll see what happens. Should this system develop, it will be named “Evan”.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 27/2325Z...
Position near 27.3S 172.0E (280nm ESE of Noumea, New Caledonia)
Movement toward the SSE at 22 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph
Minimum central pressure is 944 mb
T# numbers: 5.5/5.5

Ivy now has begun accelerating towards New Zealand, but will she hit? The latest track information out of the JTWC says it will be close. Regardless, expect Ivy to continue accelerating as she weakens and becomes extratropical.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

B) TC Monty (14S): At 27/2325Z...
Position near 19.4S 118.6E (70nm NNE of Port Hedland, Australia)
Movement toward the W at 8 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 75 mph
Minimum central pressure is 976 mb
T# numbers: 3.0/3.0

Monty continues to undergo an intensification period in favorable environment. In addition, Monty is beginning to see a banding eye feature. If that wasn’t enough, the JTWC has changed there forecast solution and is now expecting Monty to become a 100 mph cyclone by the end of the 48-hour forecast period.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 404web.txt

C) Invest (99S): At 27/2249Z...
Position near 15.7S 132.8E
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

This system remains over the Northern Territory of Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology out of Darwin note that a tropical low is expect to develop in the monsoonal trough over the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria this weekend, noting that Sunday and Monday have a moderate chance at cyclone development. We’ll stay tuned to this feature. If it develops, it will be named “Evan”.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD10610.shtml

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

...Invest 99S has been dropped...