Tropical Update: 29 Feb

[senorpepr]

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 29/1200Z...
Position near 40.3S 178.2W (370nm ESE of Auckland, New Zealand)
Movement toward the SE at 43 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph
Minimum central pressure is 991 mb
T# numbers: Extratropical

Ivy has become an extratropical system. Meanwhile, the JTWC has issued their final advisory on Ivy.

B) TC Monty (14S): At 29/1430Z...
Position near 19.8S 115.6E (170nm NNE of Learmonth, Australia)
Movement toward the SSW at 6 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph
Minimum central pressure is 933 mb
T# numbers: 6.0/6.0

Monty has become quite the storm, now reaching higher T-numbers than what Ivy reached. Expect Monty to top off within the next 12 hours. Afterwards, expect a weakening trend as Monty moves inland.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 404web.txt

C) Invest (91S): At 29/1125Z...
Position near 15.2S 137.8E (Gulf of Carpentaria)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

We’re still watching 91S for development. The Bureau of Meteorology out of Darwin, Australia states there is a possibility 91S will develop within the next day. The JTWC does not mention 91S.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDDP0002.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

FYI... NRL added Invest 93S earlier today. Stay tuned...

[senorpepr]

New information on 91P...

Code: Select all

THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.1S6 137.9E0 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S5 138.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONVERGING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION INCREASING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.

[senorpepr]

...91P is receiving T-numbers of 1.5...

[F-Bo]

93S is getting organized and in a hurry, too. Not too too impressive on satellite just yet:


"THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 72.7E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9 71.5E3, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 010114Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR."



I think the name would be Gafilo, but I could easily be wrong.

[senorpepr]

Correct... Galifo would be the next name.

[senorpepr]

Note... 91P has been upgraded to 15P.

[senorpepr]

...and yet another update...
They've giving 15P a name... Evan

TC Evan has winds of 35 mph with a pressure of 1000mb. He is centered at 13.7S 137.5E. I'll give you the whole low-down in tomorrow's tropical update...