Question

Rainband · #1 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 5:20 pm

Is this an upper level low.?? Whatever it is it I bet it's rough out there :eek:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 5:36 pm

Yeah it is an upper low moving south weird that movement as the general track is from west to east and NE as the fronts get out of the east coast of the US.THe high pressure and the low are creating a tight pressure gradient that is making things harzedous in the water.Here in PR we have small craft advisories since friday and a coastal flood watch as swells between 9-12 feet are comming to our north coast shores.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 6:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yeah it is an upper low moving south weird that movement as the general track is from west to east and NE as the fronts get out of the east coast of the US.THe high pressure and the low are creating a tight pressure gradient that is making things harzedous in the water.Here in PR we have small craft advisories since friday and a coastal flood watch as swells between 9-12 feet are comming to our north coast shores.

I thought it was interesting :wink:

I can't wait till we really have something "real" to look at

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 6:30 pm

Yes ... that is an upper level low, and that was progged by the computer model guidance many days ago to cutoff well offshore ... part of the block pattern that I posted about in the Winter Weather thread about another massive cutoff low that cuts off in the OV/NE in the next day or so ...

Incidentally, the thickness schemes are quite low with the progged cutoff that reaches down as far south as the Carolinas, but don't worry about any wintry precip that far south ... fairly steep lapse rates along with a few s/w's rotating around the upper disturbance could spark off a few thunderstorms, which might produce some small hail ...

SF

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:03 pm

There may be a surface reflection of that low (1010 mb )off the east coast as TWD notes tonight.

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... lantic.htm

#6 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:28 pm

Hmm... Ana 2?

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:There may be a surface reflection of that low (1010 mb )off the east coast as TWD notes tonight.

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... lantic.htm

I am getting good lol :wink:

Thought it looked like a swirl.

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:41 pm

link doesn't work luis

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:42 pm

No not Ana2. It's in the upper levels, and as stormfury mentioned, the models picked up on really well.

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:46 pm

BarometerBob wrote:No not Ana2. It's in the upper levels, and as stormfury mentioned, the models picked up on really well.

AT 29/2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N68W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA
ALONG 27N68W 23N74W 25N80W 32N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM SE OF THE FRONT...E OF 81W. Isn't that at the surface??

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:47 pm

Rainband wrote:link doesn't work luis

For me it works Johnnathan.

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:50 pm

Works now

Internet gas?? :lol:

Stormsfury · #13 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:53 pm

Rainband wrote:
BarometerBob wrote:No not Ana2. It's in the upper levels, and as stormfury mentioned, the models picked up on really well.
AT 29/2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N68W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA
ALONG 27N68W 23N74W 25N80W 32N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM SE OF THE FRONT...E OF 81W. Isn't that at the surface??

Just an ordinary low pressure that's developed in response to the ULL ... that's the same feature attached to the cold front (backdoor Cold front) that came through the Carolinas and Georgia yesterday afternoon ... and extends into Florida right now.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:55 pm

But anyway Johnnathan you posted the important lines about that upper low having reflection at the surface with a frontal surface trough.But NADA will happen from this so no repetition of last years ANA.

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 8:01 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Rainband wrote:
BarometerBob wrote:No not Ana2. It's in the upper levels, and as stormfury mentioned, the models picked up on really well.
AT 29/2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N68W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA
ALONG 27N68W 23N74W 25N80W 32N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM SE OF THE FRONT...E OF 81W. Isn't that at the surface??

Just an ordinary low pressure that's developed in response to the ULL ... that's the same feature attached to the cold front (backdoor Cold front) that came through the Carolinas and Georgia yesterday afternoon ... and extends into Florida right now.

Thanks Mike

As always

OtherHD · #16 Postby **OtherHD** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 8:17 pm

Rainband wrote:Works now Internet gas??

Time for a new computer.

#17 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 9:42 pm

Here's a 00Z surface plot of the region. Most definitely a 1009-1010mb surface low, but it is a frontal low presently. SSTs in that region are 20-21C, pretty cool for tropical formation. It would have to move south to the southern Bahamas to reach 25C water.

SST chart:
https://web1.navo.navy.mil/products/K10 ... astk10.gif

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/upperlow.gif">

Rainband · #18 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 9:42 pm

OtherHD wrote:
Rainband wrote:Works now Internet gas??

Time for a new computer.

ROTFLMAO. It wasn't MY DELL :lol:

Derek Ortt · #19 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:15 pm

The UL temps would need to be very cold aloft for this to have any chance. The temp difference is the key (which is what allowed Olga to develop). However, not a chance of this developing into a TC, none

#20 Postby **george_r_1961** » Tue Mar 30, 2004 2:48 am

For a brief period of time this system did have convection aound it. It appears to have gotten sheared badly the past few hours though :cry:

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