My guess at what Dr. Gray will say on Friday

[hurricanetrack]

For what it's worth, I am giving Dr. Gray decent odds that he will LOWER his numbers a little. Why? The recent data from computer models that suggests MORE of a possibility of en El Nino might sway Dr. Gray to tone down his overall forecast some. If there is any real threat of an El Nino by the late summer, you can rest assured that Dr. Gray knows about it through his work.

So- he WAS 13/7/3 and I think now he will be 12/6/2 on Friday...maybe even lower than that...we'll see....

But as we know, it matters not what the overall numbers are- it's WHERE those that do form GO.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yep I agree with you 100% regarding where the ones that do form go... It will be a interesting season!

[MGC]

I called for a possible El Nino towards the end of the season. However, conditions should be neutral for the majority of the season, thus providing optimum conditions for tropical formation.....MGC

[hurricanetrack]

As we know, there can be overwhelming conditions that lead to a lot of tropical activity even in the face of an El Nino. The record El Nino of 1997/98 is something so rare that it just about completely shut down the Atlantic hurricane season.

Even the moderate El Nino of 2002 was enough to make that season short-lived and with few hurricanes. Then- last year, we were back at it full tilt and it kept going into December.

This is what truly makes this phenomenon so neat to watch. If we knew exactly what would happen each year, it would be less exciting. Kind of like know all the outcomes to the NCAA championship games ahead of time. Where's the fun there?

I'll be up early Friday to see what Dr. Gray says. Hopefully the report will be on their server early or at least go out over the wire services.

[Guest]

He'll keep the same #'s,he is an old man...Old men are suppose to be wise...If he is wise he should have learned his lesson from last season where he continued to lower his #'s & blew it.His original #'s would've been right on the $$$.

The positive factors in the Atlantic out weigh the negatives in the Pacific which should = a normal to slightly above normal season.

[wxman57]

No change. The ENSO signals are no different than when he made his initial forecast in December. Most models still forecast neutral conditions, with a few indicating warming (El Nino). However, studies show that there is little correlation between a weak to moderate El Nino and Atlantic Basin activity. I would argue that the 2002 season had few strong storms because the QBO was easterly and there was too much shear in the lower latitudes. I remember reading that there was a QBO reversal that took place in late September (back to a favorable westerly phase). That's when major hurricanes Isidore and Lili formed. Any El Nino conditions in 2002, 2003, and 2004 were located west of the date line. East of the date line, SSTs have remained near or slightly below normal. So no El Nino effect in 2004. I do look for a QBO reversal soon, though.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Do you have a link to the most recent models that are showing El Nino? I heard neutral for this season but I do know March thru June are the predictable months. I don't think Dr. Grey will change the numbers this time but maybe in June.

[wxman57]

Do you have a link to the most recent models that are showing El Nino? I heard neutral for this season but I do know March thru June are the predictable months. I don't think Dr. Grey will change the numbers this time but maybe in June.

Here's a link to all the models:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

[hurricanetrack]

No change. The ENSO signals are no different than when he made his initial forecast in December. Most models still forecast neutral conditions, with a few indicating warming (El Nino). However, studies show that there is little correlation between a weak to moderate El Nino and Atlantic Basin activity. I would argue that the 2002 season had few strong storms because the QBO was easterly and there was too much shear in the lower latitudes. I remember reading that there was a QBO reversal that took place in late September (back to a favorable westerly phase). That's when major hurricanes Isidore and Lili formed. Any El Nino conditions in 2002, 2003, and 2004 were located west of the date line. East of the date line, SSTs have remained near or slightly below normal. So no El Nino effect in 2004. I do look for a QBO reversal soon, though.

Those are excellent points to consider. El Nino is not the only factor- but a major El Nino would obviously disrupt things in the Atlantic. None of the models are predicting a major El Nino.

We'll see. I just have this feeling that he'll lower his numbers a little. Maybe the low SOI and the warmer waters off of South America have spooked me some.

I'll feel better on Friday when he releases the numbers. Then- a week later, we'll get an in-depth look at what he thinks! Yaay.