Hurricane Season 2004: First Sketch

[donsutherland1]

At first glance, it appears that Hurricane Season 2004 is likely to be an active one with a number of landfalling storms.

<b>ENSO:</b> Currently, ENSO remains in a neutral state. Based on model forecasts and SSTAs, I expect a neutral ENSO to perhaps a borderline El Nino to predominate during most or all of the hurricane season.

<b>QBO:</b> The QBO has turned westerly and is likely to remain westerly throughout the hurricane season.

<b>Upper Air Patterns:</b>In seasons following, late fall-early spring with upper air patterns similar to the current one, 5 of the 6 seasons saw above normal hurricane activity. In addition, 4 of the 6 seasons saw a fairly large number of landfalling storms.

<b>My Outlook:</b>
<i>Total Tropical Storms or Hurricanes:</i> 13
<i>Tropical Storms: </i>5
<i>Hurricanes: </i>8
<i>Major Hurricanes:</i> 3
<i>Landfalls: </i>5

In terms of landfalls, I anticipate that most of the landfalls (3) will occur within the Gulf of Mexico region. However, I do believe that both the South Atlantic coastline and North Atlantic coastline (possibly eastern Canada) will likely see a storm make landfall as either a tropical storm or hurricane.

Also, for those wondering whether a major storm might make landfall, most of the analog years similar to the current one (upper-air patterns, SSTAs, ENSO, QBO), have had at least one hurricane whose name was retired.

Finally, odds also favor at least one early storm (before August 1), possibly in the June 20-July 15 timeframe, and at least one late storm (after November 1), possibly the November 5-20 period.

[donsutherland1]

Very early update:

Through August 13:

Total Named Storms: 3
Tropical Storms: 1
Hurricanes: 2
Major Hurricanes: 2
Landfalls: 2

Of the landfalls, Charley was the first major hurricane to make landfall since Bret in 1999. In addition, the first two landfalls have occurred in the Gulf of Mexico region, both on the Gulf Coast of Florida.

Finally, the timing of the earliest storm was off. Alex first developed on July 31. Still, everything remains on course for an active season.