Western Carib. may become interesting............

[Dean4Storms]

I've seen several models closing off a low 6 days out, AVN, UKMET, e.t.c... At least we have some pre-season possibilities out there and who knows!!

[ColdFront77]

Very loosely, practically as early as Ana last April, based statistical averages on tropical development in June and July.

I remember tropical development in the last days of May, during my the end of my Freshman year in high school, all the way back in the Spring of 1993.

[Anonymous]

I've seen several models closing off a low 6 days out, AVN, UKMET, e.t.c... At least we have some pre-season possibilities out there and who knows!!

Yes, model agreement and consistency is one of the things you need to look for. The last two years have provided some NWCARIB May surpsies. In 1953, a tropical storm developed in the western Caribbean and that is one of the years that are somewhat similar to 04.

Three recorded storms have formed in the WCARIB in May.

http://independentwx.com/MayCarib.png

[Anonymous]

Arlene in 1981 appears to be the best analog based on the model tracks.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Josephine96]

I'd like to see the 1st storm come early if it were..

Bring on the storms! so I can use my computer program to track them lol

[Derek Ortt]

I wont become excited until this shear lets us (not many tropical cyclones form this far south in a baroclinic environment, need to see a switch to barotropic before becoming the least bit excited) and until the globals start cranking out tight lows with an MSLP close to 1000 hPa